On Tuesday of this week, I posted a vision of what life would be like if we voted to Leave next week. It was a terrifying look into a UK taken over by the right of the Conservative Party. But having discussed it with others since, I think I may have actually been a little optimistic when I wrote that article.
I painted a picture of a Britain in which the right of the Tories had won, with a move to the UK being a Singapore off the coast of France, with huge tax breaks to keep business interested being afforded by massive cuts to public spending. But here’s the thing – even that probably won’t happen. And as bad as lots of it is, at least it’s a clear cut vision of the country’s future. No, instead, we’ll probably get the two wings of the Tory Leave mindset battling to a stand still. With everyone else in the country losing in the process.
On one side you have the John Redwood types. They have wanted Brexit for years and years as they rightly see it as an opportunity to put their vision of a small state, low tax Britain into practice. On the other side you have the Iain Duncan Smith bunch, who have some fuzzy idea of what Brexit looks like that is confusing and muddled. Basically, it’s sort of exactly how it is now, only we’re out of the EU and have “total sovereignty” – well, at least until we start discussing trade deals with China anyhow.
I could easily see these two groups waging a war between them for the direction of post-Brexit Britain, with the end result being nothing happens. And normally that wouldn’t be great, but coming on the heels of Brexit, it could be a disaster of truly epic proportions. Business will want answers as to what comes next – if the UK government can’t give it to them, anything could happen next. In the middle of it all will probably be Boris, his foot in neither camp in reality, procrastinating the whole way, hoping it somehow turns out all right in the end without him having to anything at all about it, the story of his life.
So don’t discount what I wrote regarding what Brexit might look like on Tuesday – I still think it is a valid possibility for what happens if we left the EU. The only thing the last two days of talking about it with others and thinking about it a little deeper have taught me is that is what the UK will be like if we’re lucky.