The SNP ride higher than ever in the polls – some have them as high 60% for next May’s Holyrood election. There appears to have been very little “Corbyn bounce” for Labour, at least thus far. It begs the question: how will anyone but the SNP win in Scotland ever again?
Part of what must be addressed to even start trying to answer that question, is to once again dispel the myth that Labour were not left-wing enough to win in Scotland. I’ve written about this point so many times I won’t repeat myself here; particularly when the real life test of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader is going to do that for me come next May.
The big problem is that there is one party of independence and several unionist parties. To add to this problem, Labour seem to want to distance themselves from unionism in order to try and steal the SNP’s thunder and get those seats back they lost to the Nats. Of this strategy I can only say, best of luck to Labour, but I don’t think it will help them any. It may even kill them off completely in Scotland.
I’m starting to believe that what’s required is a new unionist party, free from the shackles of the past. Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems are now all so tarnished as brands in Scotland (partly because they are seen as “English” entities) that it gives the SNP a free pass and many people vote for them by default.
The politics and policies of this new entity would be tricky to work out at first. But imagine if you will a party led by Ruth Davidson that wasn’t tied down by the legacy of Thatcherism in Scotland?
The idea of the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems putting aside decades of extreme dislike in order to work together to defeat the Nats may sound extremely fanciful. But necessity is the mother of invention: if something like this doesn’t happen, it’s hard to see anyone but the SNP winning in Scotland for some time. And if a unionist party cannot win at Holyrood, you have to wonder how long the Union itself can hold together.
The problem with your view is that it concedes defeat to those who believe that everything is about the consitution. I won’t to vote in a Scottish Parliament election where I am voting about political choices and political values in the administration of Scotland rather than aking another proxy vote in the independence debate.
The idea could be interesting but I’m sure Labour voters in England will not like their party teaming up with the Tories in Scotland. Especially not die hard Corbyn supporters. I think a Labour – Lib Dem team up in Scotland would be possible but including the Tories may be a step too far.
Agree totally Nick. People south of the border don’t usually understand these points, or why the SNP does so well. A nationalist alternative to the SNP, though, would be a breath of fresh air.
I can’t see any serious realignment in Scottish politics happening until it’s too late – ie after independence.
At that point, however, it is possible to speculate about the following:
– Finally, the left-right contraditions in the SNP forming a split and a new, nationalist left party forming (a nice, Scottish Red lion would do as a good logo for such a party, methinks).
– This would probably finally kill off Labour and merger with the LibDems into an SNP-sceptic pro-devolutionist party of the centre/centre-left (Scottish Democrats?) couldn’t be far off.
– This is more speculative, but I can see a split also emerging under such conditions in the Tories between a traditionalist Unionist hardcore who would campaign for reunion with the UK (far-fetched, but probably remaining popular in the Borders and less reputably, with certain sectarian groups) and those who would pragmatically accept independence but then want to campaign against the SNP from a right/centre-right (possibly neoliberal, Osborne-ite) perspective.
That still leaves 4-5 parties, with the SNP sitting in the centre, but remember, it’s a proportional system, and they’d have a lot of rocky twists and turns to negotiate…
What’s interesting to me is what role Euroscepticism would form in any future Scottish politics. Is it really going to be irrelevant for all time?
I think we’re starting to get to the point where people in England will wonder whether the price of keeping the Union intact is worth it. Scotland, led by the SNP, continually whines about ‘Westminster’, resists austerity (which the Cons have a mandate for) and pushes a nationalist agenda.
If the SNP had thought more about the Union they might have found gaps below the border that Labour had let grow by becoming similar to the Conservatives. it might have given an option other than UKIP to the working poor.
In my opinion, voting SNP has alienated the people of Scotland from the people of the UK. It’s disappointing that these voters did not vote identically in the referendum, because it would have been interesting to see if Scotland could have coped alone economically and led by the SNP
A party like the PLQ?
It’s worth noting that the Provincial and Federal Parties are two quite different things in Canada; there are plenty of people in the PLQ provincially who are in the CPC federally.