The following is a prediction of who will win in twelve seats during the general election, all of them currently held by the Conservative Party, all of them by majorities of less a thousand. Meaning, of course, that they constitute what may well be the top Labour targets in terms of taking seats from the Tories at the next election, which as you may have heard, is coming up sharpish.
As usual, I have used a mixture of polling, candidate profiles, historic seat performance, socio-economic make-up of the constituency, and pure gut feeling. Given past experience with this sort of thing, I will attempt to stave off any “You aren’t on the ground, and our candidate will win for sure” type responses with the following: if I end up being wrong, it shall be I with egg on my face, while you bask in the glory of your candidate’s new or revised place on the green benches.
1. NORTH WARWICKSHIRE
Current MP: Dan Byles
Majority: 54
Neck-in-neck at the last general election, the Tories got this one back from Labour at that point. Labour had held it since 1992, when sitting Conservative MP, Francis Maude, lost it narrowly to Mike O’Brien. Who is running again in the seat, which is a bonus for Labour. The local numbers are interesting as although Labour is 11 points ahead in the last Ashcroft poll, UKIP are polling a whopping 22% in the same set. If that vote splits and goes Tory, then they have it, just. However, the constituency has a large working class population that I don’t think will vote Conservative in enough numbers this time to save them.
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
2. THURROCK
(I’ve covered this seat in detail elsewhere, in my UKIP seat prediction).
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
3. HENDON
Current MP: Matthew Offord
Majority: 106
A suburban London seat, this is your classic Lab-Con marginal. Labour have a massive poll lead in the constituency at present, without even the saving grace of a large UKIP number to provide some hope to the Tories. Labour by a mile.
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
4. CARDIFF NORTH
Current MP: Jonathan Evans (stepping down – Conservative candidate at the election will be Craig Williams)
Majority: 194
Incumbent Tory MP stepping down, large Labour poll lead, no UKIP presence – all adds up to a Labour take.
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
5. SHERWOOD
Current MP: Mark Spencer
Majority: 214
Thank you all for being patient: this is where it starts to get interesting. Just when you thought this was going to be me spending a whole article telling you the boring news that Labour were going to take all 12 of their top Tory targets, we only need to get to number five on the list before things start to look decidedly shaky. Labour are ahead in the local Ashcroft polls, but not by very much at all – and the gap has been narrowing in the Tories’ favour as time has crept forward. Also to consider: UKIP are currently polling a whopping 23% here. If half of that goes to the Tories, it becomes an easy hold.
Prediction: TORY HOLD
6. STOCKTON SOUTH
Current MP: James Wharton
Majority: 332
The polls here are even worse for Labour – they are virtually tied with the Conservatives in local polling, and that with UKIP at 19%. The Tories, with a decent ground campaign, should be able to hold this one, particularly with a relatively high profile incumbent in Wharton.
Prediction: TORY HOLD
7. BROXTOWE
Current MP: Anna Soubry
Majority: 389
The polls here are reasonably favourable to Labour, with Soubry out-polled by almost 10%. If I take my rule of thumb on UKIP as half of it going back to the Tories, generally, at least in seats which are reasonably middle class in large patches, it would still be not quite enough to do it for the Conservatives in Broxtowe. This one is a coin toss, and will be close, but I think incumbency could work for Soubry, a liberal, reasonably Tory.
Prediction: TORY HOLD
8. LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD
Current MP: Eric Ollerenshaw
Majority: 333
That the Tories managed to pick this one up last time is testament to how badly Labour did in 2010. Labour are polling well here and looking at it objectively, it would take either a miracle or Labour fucking up biblically for this not to go red again.
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
9. AMBER VALLEY
Current MP: Nigel Mills
Majority: 536
Just as things were looking up again for Labour, you only have to go slightly south of Lancashire where their prospects look dodgy anew. Again, a narrow Labour poll lead nervously gazing at a massive UKIP poll number that could melt against them (22% here). I can see the writing on the wall here.
Prediction: TORY HOLD
10. WAVENEY
Current MP: Peter Aldous
Majority: 769
A familiar pattern is starting to emerge in most of these target seats: Labour in the lead, but one that they have been shedding slowly for the past couple of years, in line with their national poll lead shrinking, coupled with a huge UKIP figure (22% crops up again, oddly). If you take the swing between Con and Lab down even further as the election approaches, and at least part of that UKIP number going back to the Tories (big assumption, I realise, but I’m making it), then it starts to look like another, you guessed it…
Prediction: TORY HOLD
11. WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST
Current MP: Paul Uppal
Majority: 791
Enoch Powell’s old stomping ground, this used to be a very safe Tory seat. No longer, and not for the foreseeable future: the constituency is a weird mixture of poor, relatively affluent, BME, white, you name it. So your classic Tory-Lab marginal, in other words. Labour polling very well here. Even if every current UKIPper voted Tory, it still wouldn’t be enough to save it for the blues.
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
12. MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE
Current MP: David Morris
Majority: 866
A seaside town that used to be a safe Conservative seat, it went Labour in 1997 and they managed to narrowly hold it at each subsequent election. Polls still very close between the two big parties here, with the requisite large UKIP figure (19%). Even if a quarter of the Kippers vote blue, it’s all over, and that’s before I calculate any further Lab to Con swing.
Prediction: TORY HOLD
So, out of the twelve highest Tory facing Labour targets, I predict in the end that they are only going to end up with exactly half of them on May 8th, 2015. What does this mean for the overall result of the next general election? Well, if Labour only get half of their very most gettable seats from the Tories, it does not augur well. There are some further down the list I can only see going Labour’s way – but not all that many. And if anything, on reflection I may have been a bit too kind to Labour in my predictions here.
As a postscript, I’d like to say that I have tried to be as objective as I could be with these predictions. I am not writing any of this because I wish explicitly to see a Tory majority (I existentially do not), or even the Tories as the largest party. It just looks and feels as if we’re very much headed in that direction.
Steve Peers says
You’re assuming that all returnees from UKIP will be Tories – surely at least some of them (if there are any) will be Labour.
Scott C says
Hi Nick,
Labour will have to do much better than this if they are to offset their predicted losses in Scotland, don’t you think? They seem to be in a bit of a difficult spot. To gain IN England they have to lean right, but that will make things worse in Scotland. How do you see the overall arithmetic working out?
Kay Dickinson says
Hi Nick – I note your ‘it will be me with egg on my face’ comment, but I do think you’re wrong about Morecambe and Lunesdale – the Labour candidate is gaining an awful lot of support and the Tory has been publicly seen to have done absolutely sod all for the area save shmooze with celebs and line his own pockets. He couldn’t even be bothered to turn up at the public hustings and conspired with the local Tory backing paper to hold a behind closed doors internet hustings which they arranged for when they knew the Labour candidate couldn’t make it. I’ve not seen a single Tory poster out anywhere, nor has he been seen at the recent carnival or talking to ordinary constituents. I reckon Labour will walk it.