One of the strangest elements of the current political moment isn’t just that both the Conservative and Labour party poll ratings are in free fall at the same time – a YouGov Westminster one today puts the Lib Dems in the lead with 24%, Brexit Party on 22% and both main parties tied for fourth […]
Archives for May 2019
Why I think the Tories should pick Rory Stewart as their next leader
People in the Westminster bubble are either getting excited about Rory Stewart’s bid for the leadership of the Conservative party, acting all sniffy about it (thus validating it in many respects), sometimes even suggesting Stewart must have ulterior motives for running; others are doing the classic Westminster thing and acting like they are too cool […]
My immediate take on the EU election results
It was a very good night for Remain – but not for the reasons most people are talking about A conversation that will rumble on for at least the next couple of weeks will be around whether Remain or Leave “won” these elections in the UK. On one side, you will hear endlessly about the […]
As May resigns, it is clear to see how much the shadow of Boris has hung over her entire premiership
I found it interesting that Theresa May sounded more assured, warmer and more confident when delivering her resignation speech than she had sounded in years. The professional politician, whatever you thought of that iteration of May and I was never particularly a fan, was back for one last go. The office of prime minister had […]
Labour could come fourth tomorrow – let’s examine the aftermath of that result
YouGov have put out their final poll before the EU elections tomorrow. They have the Brexit Party storming ahead on 37%, the Lib Dems in second on 19%, Labour in third on 13%, the Green on 12% – and the Tories on a lowly 7%. It should be noted again that this is a difficult […]
Why our electoral system is actually so vulnerable to being gamed by bad guys
I’ll start off by saying that I am not hinting at nor openly accusing any campaign or political party of wrongdoing, technically legal or otherwise. I have no idea who has done what and I’m not interested in getting into the whole “yeah, but Vote Leave cheated” debate. I’m only here to tell you what […]
Change UK will inevitably fold into the Liberal Democrats. The vital question is when
Heidi Allen was interviewed on the Today programme this morning. She faced a tough set of questions, mainly because of how bad things have got for Change UK in such a short period of time. Asked about her defecting to the Lib Dems, she said she wouldn’t be. But her plan for what to do […]
The Lib Dems overtake Labour in a poll for the first time since 2010 – the zero percent strategy kicks in
To an outside observer, the political strategy being pursued by the Labour leader’s office appears to be shockingly idiotic. They are advocating going ahead with what would be a reasonably hard Brexit, but not one that any self-identified hard Brexiteer would be happy with. To boot, it is mostly built around things that are either […]
May’s latest move on Brexit makes no sense at all. I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised any longer
After weeks of drift, finally an announcement from the government on Brexit. A new Withdrawal Agreement Bill will be put to the House of Commons to vote on during the week of June 3rd. Let’s avoid the whole “but what is so different about this Bill which means the Speaker will allow it” debate since […]
The Labour Party is in so much more trouble than the political media imagine
YouGov released some polling this morning which painted a political landscape in the midst of massive change. One poll was measuring Westminster voting intention, with both the Tories and Labour on 24%, The Brexit party on 18% and the Lib Dems on 16%, with the Greens on 7% (the rise of Farage’s new group seems […]