As predicted by most, May won the no confidence vote last night comfortably, 200-117. Rees-Mogg was in there almost instantly trying to paint it as a loss for the prime minister, but it wasn’t. There is some talk about her authority being weakened: it was dealt a massive blow with the 2017 general election result […]
What would really happen if Brexit didn’t happen? Let’s try and focus on what we know
One of the great political truisms of our age is that if Brexit were to not happen there would be “trouble”. I myself have engaged in this thinking, on this very website on occasion – it’s actually a hard assumption not to naturally fall into, if you’re in the Westminster bubble in any way, shape […]
After last night’s historic votes, this is why Brexit now mostly comes down to what Corbyn does
It was quite the evening in the House of Commons last night. Theresa May was stepping up to debate her Brexit deal with the House – meaning, she had to stand in the middle and hear from all sides how bad most MPs think it is, something she’s signed up to do for four more […]
The surrealism of the current Brexit situation – The Attorney General addresses the House
Yesterday evening saw Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General who has become the darling of many a Tory since Conservative party conference due to his ability to give a speech that did not irrevocably suck, at the dispatch box. The reason was that the House of Commons had voted to force the government to make the […]
Don’t be too concerned about what Theresa May is ruling out at the moment. There are many possibilities after the deal gets voted down
Let’s tally this up: Theresa May has ruled out several things in the event the vote on her deal does not pass through parliament. She has very recently ruled out trying to go for an EEA arrangement, citing free movement (let’s face it, the ending of which was the only part of Brexit she ever […]
The “none of the above” electorate and what I think it has to do with both Brexit and the 2017 general election result
During the 2015 general election campaign, I did some phone canvassing for the Lib Dems. It was the simpler end of this sort of thing, at least for me: I was calling local organisers to see what, if anything, they required from HQ. So, no need to pitch the party, just find out some practicalities. […]
Trying to imagine the horror of the May/Corbyn Brexit TV debate
This really does look to be coming our way. Theresa May has said she would like to debate Jeremy Corbyn on the television, on the merits or lack thereof of her deal with the EU. I’ve been trying to imagine what such a debate would look like – I can confirm that such a thing […]
How a no confidence vote against the government might actually pan out (including one wacky scenario)
With May’s Brexit arrangement facing an uncertain future in the Commons, some of the palace intrigue shifts to the idea of a vote of no confidence in the government should HMG fail to gain a majority for May’s plan in the House. But what would actually happen if this were to occur – and more […]
How Brexit is becoming a battle for the soul of the Conservative Party
It’s become cliche that every Tory prime minister since Major at least has been brought down by Europe. Also, that it appears to be happening yet again. I think Brexit exposes something deeper than this in terms of the problems faced by the Conservative party, going all the way back to Thatcher’s departure in 1990, […]
For the first time since June 2016, I feel like Brexit not happening is more likely than it happening. Here’s why
Some housekeeping first: looks like the 48 letter challenge to May’s premiership has stalled, rather embarrassingly for the main cheerleaders involved. Meanwhile, Spain is threatening to bring down the whole deal from the EU side over provisions covering Gibraltar – remember, the deal still has to be ratified by the EU27. There are still a […]