Even for someone like me who was expecting the locals to go very, very well for the Tories and very, very, very badly for Labour, the picture that is emerging exceeds even my expectations. As of this second, the Conservatives have gained 163 seats overall, Labour have lost 127 (!), the Lib Dems have lost […]
Everyone compares the current era to the 1930s. But it’s more like the 1920s and here’s how
The 1920s are often thought of historically as the calm between two storms; the jazz era that was a brief flicker of stability between the First World War and the Great Depression. However, in Britain it was a very politically turbulent time, with three general elections being called in the space of two years. The […]
This is the critical element that will determine how well the Lib Dems do on June 8th
At this stage, I expected three things to be happening in regards to the general election campaigns and polling. One, we would see UKIP’s polling numbers deflate and going to the Tories. Two, Labour’s campaign would be a gaffe prone nightmare, seeing their numbers dip into the early twenties and possibly the teens. Three, a […]
Why the Left’s strategy over the past few years is a bit like the Iraq invasion
The decision for the then Labour government to join the US in invading Iraq in 2003 is pivitol for the Left; it was the moment when New Labour joined the ranks of the scorned, the unforgivable. When “Blairite” became pejorative. That’s why it’s ironic that the way the “coalition of the willing” went wrong in […]
The “progressive alliance” is a real gift to Theresa May
Labour are now standing aside for the Greens in Brighton Pavillion having worked out almost certainly correctly that the Tories would have taken it otherwise. The Greens are in turn standing aside in – wait, where are the Greens standing aside for their progressive brethren again? I can’t keep track. The “progressive alliance” idea is […]
The Labour election campaign has several problems. This may be the most crucial one
Anyone who isn’t part of the Church of Jeremy will conclude that the Labour general election campaign has got off to a bad start. The day the election was called by May, I did up a Labour election bingo card. Every single event I predicted then has already taken place, and parliament hasn’t even been dissolved yet: […]
Why Zac running in Richmond Park is such a bonus for the Lib Dems
Zac Goldsmith has been selected as the Tory candidate for Richmond Park for the 2017 general election. I think if anyone other than Zac had run there, the Tories would have had a very good chance of retaking this seat. As it stands, I think the Lib Dems will hold it, just. The reason for […]
I really, really don’t understand what Labour’s policy on Brexit is
Keir Starmer, the shadow secretary for leaving the EU, gave a speech yesterday that was meant to clear the air on what Labour’s election policy on Brexit really, actually in fact is. Of course, it only led to more confusion. I work in public policy in Westminster. I work in public policy specifically on Brexit […]
If Nuttall doesn’t stand in a seat at this election, UKIP should just disband quietly
It is fair to say that things have not gone well for UKIP so far in this nascent general election campaign. The pledge to medically check girls for FGM seems to have gone over rather less well than they had hoped, to put things mildly; polling suggests strongly that their vote is melting into the […]
I have to admit that the Lib Dems start to this election campaign has been very good. Here’s exactly how
Some have said – mostly Lib Dems – that I’ve been a bit harsh on the party Peter Bone likes to describe as the “yellow peril”. That in the midst of #libdemfightback and the retaking of local seats, I’ve refused to be moved in regards to the rebirth of Lib Demery post-2015. The latest example […]