Theresa May is in real trouble on Brexit, but that’s no surprise. What is, a little bit anyhow, is the fight shown by Conservative MPs to stop no deal Brexit from happening. It wasn’t something I was counting on, particularly when you figure out that Tory voters aren’t going to thank them for it (even […]
Nothing Theresa May is doing now makes any sense, even on its own terms
For a long time, as many of you know, I was certain that May wouldn’t allow no deal Brexit to happen. Now, I don’t know. Perhaps parliament will figure out a way to stop it, if that’s what it comes to, but even that I have no strong confidence in. I’m not saying no deal […]
What a no deal Brexit would do to both major parties
There are some good articles floating around out there in the bubble about May’s thinking on no deal – the press in Westminster are starting to focus at long last on the fact that the country could be irreparably changing in a few weeks’ time. The logic goes that May always saw no deal as […]
Why a no deal Brexit is more likely to cause civil unrest than any other result
The debate around no deal Brexit has heated up to a place I never imagined it would. I always knew pretty much what Theresa May was going to do, and I have been mostly right on that front; what I failed to see was that the hardcore Leavers on the Tory backbenches would vote down […]
What happens if the Queen has to adjudicate Brexit?
Former senior legal counsel to the government Stephen Laws QC was on the Today programme this morning. He had a very interesting take on what’s happening in parliament at the moment. He presented the notion that the Queen might be required to decide whether certain Bills that had passed the Commons should get Royal Assent […]
Why after last night’s historic loss by the government, it is Jeremy Corbyn who is in real trouble
It is a sign of the very strange times we live in that the government could lose a vote by a whopping 230 votes and still no one was surprised when the prime minister did not resign. Or that the no confidence vote to be held in its wake is expected to be won by […]
Here’s what no one knows about another EU referendum, even though everyone feels the need to bluff it
There are several accepted “truths” about what would happen if there was another referendum on Britain’s EU membership, pumped out by even the most Remainery of journalists and pundits. One, it would be more divisive and bitter than the first. Two, that it would lead to a rising of the far right the likes of […]
In trying to talk both Brexiteers and Remainers into voting for May’s deal, the government has convinced them both to vote against it
This morning’s Guardian page had two headlines directly parallel to each other. One had Jeremy Hunt saying that voting against May’s deal made no deal Brexit more likely; the other said that Hunt claimed the recent votes in the Commons made no Brexit at all happening much more likely. As you may have noticed, a […]
Brexit: The Uncivil War, reviewed
Last night at 9 PM, as almost all of you will know, Channel 4 broadcast a drama based on the events leading up to the EU referendum in June 2016, written by James Graham and starring Benedict Cumberbatch. I’m going to break this review up into two separate pieces: one, reviewing “The Uncivil War” as […]
We are on the verge of a whole new political era, no matter what happens. So why doesn’t it feel like it?
This is a very, very strange time for British politics. The Article 50 period runs out in a mere 81 days. Having thought it through, I don’t see how we’re not on the verge of a new political era, very different even to the one we’ve inherited since June 24th of 2016. Yet it doesn’t […]