There are endless theories about why the 2017 general election, which had been assumed throughout to be heading for a large Tory majority, ended in a hung parliament. The main factors that are usually cited are: the Tories’ bad campaign, in particular May’s poor performance; Remain voters gathering behind Labour in order to try and […]
The Tories are on the brink of establishing an hegemony that could last the entirety of the next decade. There’s only one thing stopping them
The polls look dire for anyone but the Conservative party. Labour are floundering, as they were always going to, and the Lib Dems have been effectively squeezed. The latter has come about due to a combination of the fact that both the Tories and Labour have an interest in seeing the Lib Dems crushed, the […]
Why the political media truism “The Lib Dems Revoke Article 50 policy was a mistake” isn’t true. The real problem is deeper
The Lib Dem campaign is in trouble. At least, this is becoming the narrative, which during a general election campaign means it is reality. Political pundits are looking at all elements of the Lib Dem campaign and finding fault in every corner. This is standard: in successful campaigns, every element is seen to be genius, […]
Why the Lib Dems saying that they would never put Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10 is smart politics
A couple of years ago, in the wake of the 2017 general election, I wrote a book called “Apocalypse Delayed: Why the Left are Still in Trouble” which advanced a theory about the Labour Party that is about to be tested, namely that they would lose, again. I also wrote about the woes of the […]
Why the winner of last night’s ITV leader’s debate could turn out to be Jo Swinson
For those of you who didn’t watch the leader’s debate on ITV, which hopefully was most of you, it was as dire as expected. Johnson just barked campaign lines in a chaotic, sometimes random way; he had nothing new whatsoever to say for himself. Corbyn looked tired and fed up and though he was a […]
Why it is ridiculous to say that the 2019 general election won’t tell us what the country thinks about Brexit
Here’s my main problem with the People’s Vote argument: it seems to be taken for granted in Remain circles that the 2016 EU referendum was a bad idea (which is was) but that the fix to this problem is to do it all over again. It’s like thinking the best way to treat someone whose […]
My prediction for the 2019 general election
I can already feel it: I will regret writing this article. Partly because I was so wrong last time, being sure right up until the reveal of the exit poll that the Tories had won a huge majority. I’ll also regret it partly because making any sort of prediction on how this election is going […]
Steve Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, makes an inadvertent pitch to Remain in the EU
Steve Barclay is the Brexit Secretary. I’m telling you this as some casual readers might not be aware of this fact given we’ve had so many Brexit Secretaries already. Anyhow, that’s what Steve does – now you know. His contribution to the Tory general election campaign thus far has been to make a video about […]
Why the Lib Dems shouldn’t stand candidates in Canterbury or Uxbridge
The Lib Dem PPC for Canterbury, Tim Walker, stepped down as the candidate last night. Many Remainers were overjoyed that Walker had decided to stand aside to help Rosie Duffield, a Labour Remainer, keep the seat. Then, LD HQ announced it was putting in a new candidate. Cue outrage from Remainers across social media. This […]
The Brexit party has stood down in Tory seats – is this a good or bad thing for the Conservatives? Here’s the calculation that will determine that
The big news from yesterday is that Nigel Farage will be standing down Brexit party candidates in all 317 seats the Conservatives won in the 2017 general election. Put aside the oddness of this criteria – the Brexit party won’t be standing in Anna Soubry’s seat, who is no longer a Tory MP and a […]