Yesterday’s EP election results were gutting. In fact, I haven’t felt that badly about an election result since 2010, when in the face of poll results telling us we were going to get a hundred-plus seats and “Cleggmania”, we ended up losing five. Even with all of the disappointing democratic results that have followed, including the AV referendum of which I was a part, this one feels the worst. Perhaps it’s because I’m a passionate pro-European and us getting all but wiped out added to UKIP coming first feels terrifying.
Before the European results had even been announced, a group called Lib Dems 4 Change had put out an epetition calling for Nick Clegg’s head. Okay, we’re talking about Lib Dems here, so actually it was a very politely worded letter saying that yes, Nick you’ve been great but could you see your way to standing down, please? You’re wonderful and all of that, but you don’t seem to be getting through to people.
At the spring conference rally in York a couple of months ago, I got a glimpse of a post-Clegg Lib Dems. And it wasn’t a pretty sight. Once could feel the absence of Nick acutely; his gravitas, his ability to communicate our party’s values, his determination to make us a serious party of government. Tim was great, as always, but he was no Nick.
Those who think that by Nick Clegg stepping aside we can simply return to where we were four years and a bit years ago, the party of “a plague on all your houses”, the party of protest against the Westminster elite, is a fantasy. That ship has sailed, with Nigel Farage at the helm. Our hands have been bloodied. From here, we either demonstrate that we can run the country effectively or we will be destroyed. I happen to think, for now, that Nick Clegg is the only person who can pull this off.
To those who think that Vince Cable becoming leader will purify the party, make people listen to what we have to say in an open-minded way, I’d like to remind you of several inconvenient facts. Vince has been the Secretary of State for Business for the last four years. He has been part of this coalition government. Sometimes begrudgingly, but no matter.
If you think just because Labour have made cooing noises at Vince throughout this parliament that this signifies that their attacks on the Lib Dems are simply a reaction against Clegg, I say you have no understanding of the Labour Party or how it operates, and you are being the stereotypical Lib Dem of Labour lore. In other words, you are demonstrating remarkable political naivety. Labour would turn on Vince faster than you could ever believe, getting the Rt Hon Cable right where it hurts: this was the man responsible for the raising of the tuition fees. Unfair in numerous respects, but that would be the line. We would be reminded that Vince was also a Minister in a key government position, someone who signed off austerity measures. Labour are a ruthless party that does what it must to get back into power, just as any party who is one of the big two in what is essentially a two party electoral system has to do to remain that way. They were pleasant to us pre-2010 because we weren’t a threat to them. That will never be the case again, at least so long as we have a chance of denying them anything they want. The narrative on the left is firmly against us, so if you think the lefties would come flocking back to us under Vince, you are living in a dream.
Also, all this talk of Vince’s “Coronation” that has been floated by Lembit amongst others is disturbing in its own right. Since when does someone become the leader of the Liberal Democrats by divine right? There would be a leadership contest, chaps. One that Vince would by no means have in the palm of his hand.
The idea that it’s the messenger and not the message is an appealing one for all Lib Dems, even strong supporters of Nick such as myself. But I don’t think that’s the case, sadly. If I thought everything would improve for us instantly should Nick walk away, even I would be in favour. But again, that isn’t the case. People on the left think we betrayed them for going into government with the Conservatives. Students think we stitched them up over tuition fees. Now, I don’t think either of those things is fair or correct, but that’s what people in those constituencies think. The attacks on Nick are simply a smoke screen most of the time. They would not go away under new leadership.
So we need to go into May 2015 with Nick convincing people that what we’ve done in government was worthwhile. As someone who has not only been there, as Deputy Prime Minister for the whole time, but as the most effective communicator we’ve got. Forget about these Euro elections, hard as it is for all of us – console yourself with the fact that it was never going to be good for us. Anyone could have told you that in 2010. Look instead to the future and our best chance of getting into government again. Which will be under the leader that got us there in the first place.
Roxanna Arif says
This is the most sensible thing I’ve read all day, thank you for that.
Sadie says
You understand the Labour Party. Thanks for explaining what I know so well.
Greenfield says
No-one (okay the 90% not supporting Lib Dems in the Polls) is listening or believes what Nick Clegg says ( and therefore the party) …..whatever it is….he is TOXIC,,, an unfair view IMO since the Tuition cock up. This has stuck for four years (almost) 365 days isnt going the change that IMO. A change of Leader .- Jenny Wilmott – voted against the Tuition issue I believe , or the Publics old favourite Charles Kennedy, both I’m sure would improve the position that the Lib Dems are now in. The Lib Dems could find themselves holding the balance of power with Labour as the largest party , as things stand……. a new Leader would have the chance (this may not be realised, but still a chance) to turn things around and limit losses…….Nick Clegg sad to say has no chance.
Jonathan PRICE says
This is the problem. Although Nick has undoubtedly done a good job and probably would do so again if given the chance, the electorate has lost faith in him. It’s a bit like when the market loses faith in the CEO of a listed company. They may be right or they may be wrong, but it doesn’t matter. Once the confidence is gone, that’s it. Game over. He must go.
Victoria Cepel says
I admire Nick Clegg. He was in an impossible position. To turn down the opportunity of participating in a coalition government was unthinkable. Having done so he has changed history for The LibDems. They now have experience of Govt..which is more than most of the Labour shadow cabinet have.
Unfortunately he has been forced into too many compromises and the Tuition Fees issue is and will be, to him, the millstone Iraq has been to Tony Blair. It will be the answer he gets back to everything and anything he tries to say. He has become the public’s whipping boy and that is not something that he will be able turn around in 300 days.
Having said that I agree that there is no-one else with sufficient voter recognition, communications skills, experience or clout to step up and take his place.
The party must therefore accept that whatever happens, the next general election will be a wipeout. They must focus on the areas of the country where they have strong councils and MPs and start to re-build trust. Clegg & co should use this year to vocally and visibly challenge the Tories in all their important areas of difference. They really have nothing to lose.
Julian Tisi says
But even on the tuition fees issue the party is finally starting to fight back. It’s been held up as the ultimate betrayal, the complete sell-out, but when you explain the actual policy to most people as opposed to the hyperbolic hype, most people say “oh, that sounds fair”.
On the economy Nick is being utterly vindicated and people will start to feel it – very soon, Labour’s hyperbolic claims about mass unemployment, the most right wong government in history, the death of the NHS etc. etc. are going to look really silly. This isn’t lost yet.
Gwynfor Tyley says
Great article but can the team at the top deliver what is needed? – and it is a team effort that is required with first class comms. IMO it must be repeated again and again for the next 12 months that 1, there was no choice but to go into coalition otherwise there would have been a majority tory government within 12 months and 2, the tory government we have had for the last 4 years has been moderated by the presence of the lib dems and 3, the lib dems have delivered some really progressive achievements as junior partner – Tim Farron did the job well recently in an interview but the whole team have to repeat, repeat, repeat.
At the same time the lib dems should ignore UKiP – the more damage UKIP can do to the tories in 12 months, the better!
Daniel Coonan says
Essentially what you are saying is that without Clegg there is no other figure to lead the party? I agree on this. Vincent Cable is the next best man? Cripes.
The first time I voted was in 1992, when Ashdown was a strident leader with some very good ideas. I voted Lib Dem.
Having done a bit of reading in my early 20’s about 20th century politics I started to realise that in fact Labour were the guys, over the years that had done most for the country. Including providing both of my grandparents with housing when they worked damned hard in the Lucas factories in Birmingham.
I diverge. It’s all very well asking people to rally around Clegg, who has truly been chewed up by the Faustian deal with the Conservatives. ((No matter what anybody thinks of the Conservatives, they are a truly sophisticated machine, even when it’s going badly for them. The Lib Dems entered the machine and it’s ended terribly for them.)
The problem is that no matter who takes the helm of the Lib Dems, they are in a boat churning in dark waters, politically naive, not at all in touch with working people in Britain. The call to rally behind Clegg is a cry into the wilderness because, quite simply, the people of the UK have no idea what the LibDems stand for anymore and the fact that you, as a LIb Dem blogger cannot give countenance to anybody but Nick Clegg speaks volumes on how weak and irrelevant the party is becoming and how chaotic it seems. Of course, I talk as a layman. But, hey, that’s what us UK voters are mostly made up of. Your blog entry, on this occasion, seems to say ‘We literally have no one to take us on a new path, so let’s keep heading towards the iceberg because it’s still dark out there.’ But it’s there. I believe that you are some sort of strategist for the party? I may be wrong on this but I will be very interested to watch your posts as the election looms.
PS- I’ve just watched Cable on ‘Strictly Come Dancing’ and it’s magical.
Nick says
I would just like to say that I am not now nor have I ever been a strategist for the Lib Dems. If the party asked me to work for them, I would be overjoyed to. However, my first question on day one would be why the party had just hired a strategist who maintains a blog on which world leaders are compared to Butthole Surfers records.
Daniel Coonan says
Would it it really be your first question if offered such a choice? Considering you were a campaigner within the ranks of the failed AV campaign? It seems like a kind of warped modesty. As if you choose to use an ‘outsiders’ badge of honour as something that may be useful to a political party who seem to be full of outsiders, but none of whom could name a ‘Butthole Surfers’ album. (Or maybe even a Charlie Mingus recording)
But the the thing is, and this is written with respect: you – and relatively young bloggers like you – may be able to convince me and others to vote lib Dem again. Man of their social policies are correct and very much on point. People like you need to get out on the streets after the next election and show us what you are actually about. Not only in pleasant boroughs and towns, but also within council blocks and tough streets. ( Hey, I grew up on one).
I do have a horrible feeling that the Lib Dems are going to be almost annihilated within the political landscape in the next election. I simply don’t know one person within my family, friends or professional colleagues who have any desire to vote for them. Not one. And many did in the last election.
The main problem, of course, is that choosing to participate in a joint government with the Conservatives was the equivalent of drinking from a poisoned chalice. It is almost impossible to conceive that from the word ‘go’, the conservatives would not have already set up a department (albeit, a small gang) to make sure that the Lib Dems would never have a clear voice within the media. This has been the Lib Dem’s undoing and it will carry on forth into the next general election.
If the Lib Dems made any clear changes to divert the idealogical paths of Cameron and Osborne within government, it was never reported. We obviously heard heard a huge amount about Cable’s capitulation when it came to tuition fees though. That was pretty much front page news.
Now this is a bold paragraph, but someone once said ‘Fame is a mask that eats into the face’. In the case of Cable, certainly Danny Alexander, the constant media coverage did do something to either expose them or at worst weaken them in the eyes of the public. They simply weren’t ready for it.
And so hat’s off, for being a blogger who writes about ‘Butthole Surfers’ and the next month writes ‘Please stick by Clegg’. At least it seems honest to a degree.
But until the UK really knows what the Lib Dems stand for anymore, I honestly think it doesn’t look good for them at all. It’s going to take time.
D
Greenfield says
Charles Kennedy …………. The Lib Dems need you……….the country needs you. Pro Europe – didn’t vote for Tuition fees (I think??) – experienced media performer – well known…..and yes even liked by the Public……………
CK – your the only hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!