How you emotionally respond to the question I’ve posed in the headline will have a lot to do with your politics. “Who cares?” might be one. “They’re doing pretty well given the tuition fees fiasco” might be another. “Who cares about the national polls – look at all those local by-election wins!” will paint you as a particular tranche of my readership also.
For all the talk of a resurgence of the Lib Dems – and those local by-election victories I’m starting to have to admit are impressive – and for all the talk of the Liberal Democrats inheriting Remain votes from Labour, the national poll ratings are still very low. In the most recent ICM national general election poll, one that saw Labour fall to 26 putting the Tories ahead of them by 18, the Lib Dems were stuck at 8%. In other words, exactly what the party polled at the last general election, one that saw them lose 48 seats. Why aren’t we seeing a pick up in Lib Dem polling?
The answer is probably pretty straightforward and answers several others questions regarding the Lib Dems winning all those local seats, even in areas that voted heavily to Leave. People are reconnecting with the idea of the Lib Dems as the “none of the above” choice. I think this might actually bode poorly for UKIP, particularly if they fail to gain Stoke Central, since it means that people are happy that the referendum result will go through, dislike Corbyn’s Labour, and want to vote for someone other than the governing party. In other words, they are happy to have a Lib Dem councillor, but wouldn’t consider voting for the Lib Dems at national level.
The counter argument to that is Richmond Park. Yet that was in a very heavily Remain constituency with a Brexity Tory MP standing. This means that any hope of gaining back seats lost to the Tories last time around in the West Country are completely forlorn. The Lib Dems would do better to start looking at the feasibility of targeting London seats where the sitting Labour MP voted for the Article 50 Bill, like Diane Abbott’s constituency – or Jeremy Corbyn’s for that matter.
I’m not saying Abbott or Corbyn’s seats are gettable for the Lib Dems, just to be clear – it’s just that I don’t see how they are any less attainable than say, North Devon or Camborne and Redruth. There is an upside to all of this for the Lib Dems, if the party can grab hold of the opportunity: Labour votes will be in decline across the whole of the country at the next general election. Combine that with Labour’s ill-judged approach to Brexit (being neither fish nor foul) and the Lib Dems might be able to get a fair helping of seats that currently belong to Labour. If – and this is a big if – the Lib Dems can target their resources correctly.
In conclusion, the Lib Dems poll share being about where it was at the 2015 general election is probably about right at present. That doesn’t mean it will stay that way, however. Labour is almost certain to drop further in the polls – the question is whether those people go Lib Dem or go elsewhere. At present, I don’t know.
Martin says
“People are reconnecting with the idea of the Lib Dems as the “none of the above” choice.”
This is a bigger worry for Liberal Democrats than you describe as it largely accounts for the drop in support so soon after they were part of government. No party wants to refuse ‘none of the above’ voters or tactical votes, but they are very much a two edged sword for a political party that aspires to govern. For the moment the party has to use these ’empty’ votes in order to regain a platform.
Tuition fees are mentioned because that was the cause célèbre, even though it was a rather too cunning workable version of a graduate tax. Had it not bee tuition fees it would have been something else. If your support is so unstable any issue will do and in fact Lib Dem polls took a dive before the tuition fee issue became prominent.
Brexit does represent an opportunity for Lib Dems, but unfortunately, for a stable shift, only once the negative effects of Brexit really become palpable. This will be too late.
You concentrate on the travails of Labour, however this is not enough for many ex Lib Dem seats, where the losses were more a result of a shift to the Conservatives. Brexit blight really needs to move Conservative remainers to the Lib Dems. The polls suggest this is not yet happening.
Having said that, some scepticism about poling methods could be in order: factors that underestimated the Lib Dem collapse are likely to underestimate any revival. On line polling that some of the companies use is notoriously difficult to make adjustments for
Nick Tyrone: An issue you might like to turn your pen to is why May’s stakes continue to ride high. One reason may be because she has done so very little since becoming PM; however, there is an accumulating deficit and a bout of austerity is on its way, she will then have to present unpopular policies in the face of an economy dragged down by Brexit. The Daily Mail will do its bit, but will be unable to keep prices down, nor to offer increased wages.
paul barker says
The first point to make is that we should never put much weight on individual polls. Averageing out the last 7 polls gives The Libdems 10%, up about a third on the General Election.
The second point is that all those Council byelelections involve tiny numbers of voters & get almost no publicity. Most voters dont know about them.
The simplest explanation of our low polling is a time-lag. The polls represent where we were in “Real” elections about a year ago. That time-lag will continue unless we get a result (on thursday for example) that shocks the National media into acknowledging us.
nvelope2003 says
Tuesday21st February: Basingstoke and Deane (Winklebury) by election
Labour 61.6% ( +31.1)
Conservative 35.3% (- 10.5)
Liberal Democrat 3.1% (-2.7)
UKIP 0 % (-17.9%)
Previous election 2015
Not much sign of a Labour collapse or Liberal Democrat or even Conservative revival.
William says
One by-election doesn’t make a Summer.
Angharad Shaw says
It’s very simple. Main stream media and exposure thereon. How else, for example, can we explain Tim Farron’s low personal rating when he is far and away the most eloquent and reasoned of the main UK party leaders.
William says
People vote differently to how they answer the question: “How are you planning to vote?”
People still identify as Labour or Tory, they just won’t vote for Corbyn or – for some – May’s hard Brexit Tories. The Lib Dems pick up these votes in elections, even when the polls still show these people as Labour or Tory people.
Even in the Sleaford by-election – where things were tough for the party – the Lib Dems were the only party to actually gain votes (not just % votes) since the general election.
Nigel Phillips says
It is I believe a historical feature going back many years that the Lib Dems and the Liberals before them get a poll boost during the General Election of roughly 4%, probably because election coverage rules means that they appear more on the TV. This did not figure in the last couple of elections because they had been getting a lot of coverage already. Now however we are back to the bad old days of invisibility and I suspect we may also go back to the exposure boost at the election. So, an opinion poll rating of 8%, if the election were to start now, would equate to a vote of about 12%. Not great but better than the General Election.