Ireland has an effective veto on allowing the EU-UK trade talks to proceed further. The EU has given the UK 10 days (now eight, I suppose) to come up with a solution to the border problem or trade talks will be further stalled. Furthermore, the Irish want a real solution to the problem, not a fudge like “okay, we want to avoid a hard border too, so we’ll try our best” or “zeppelins will patrol the Irish border” – they want the UK to decide on what they will do to avoid a hard border and commit to it. Which means either the UK remains in the Customs Union, or Northern Ireland stays in the CU and is given special status, meaning the island of Ireland will be united for all intents and purposes, with the a hard border between the whole of the island and Britain.
To surmise: either Theresa May keeps the UK in the Customs Union, enraging her own party and probably ending her premiership; she keeps Northern Ireland in the CU, and the DUP brings down the government and there is another election; or she does neither and the trade talks don’t go ahead, and whatever hell that unleashes. In other words, we are in the midst of a major national crisis. Yet pundits seem to be taking the whole thing very, very lightly all things considered.
Is it because everyone figures the Irish will just cave on this? Why would they? Some are clinging to the crisis unfolding within the Irish government, with Fianna Fail threatening to bring the current supply and confidence arrangement down, bringing on another election. But that election would be fought on which party could be hardest on the British as the main issue. So, things would only possible get worse from a UK perspective.
I feel like I’m missing something here. Why is everyone so calm about this? Our prime minister has been given a week and a half deadline to decide the fate of the country. Seems like a big deal to me, but what do I know.
“Is it because everyone figures the Irish will just cave on this?”
I do not even begin to understand what this might mean. That Ireland, too, would leave the EU? Or that Ireland will accept the end of the Good Friday Agreement and erection of extensive border controls?
Although both sides avow it will not happen, I feel it is more and more likely that the UK will have to beg for an emergency extension; not a transition, because there would be nowhere to go, but an unresolvable limbo.
That whole of Brexit is a cloud cuckoo land fantasy. Why should this part be any different?
What we are seeing here is competition on two fronts: on the electoral front between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail as to which party is more republican-than-thou and on the other front an ill-disguised and unresolved leadership dispute within Ireland’s governing Fine Gael party between Taoiseach (PM) Leo Varadkar and his deputy, Simon Coveney, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade. The British government would be well advised to treat any outbursts from Dublin accordingly.
Which means either the UK remains in the Customs Union, or Northern Ireland stays in the CU and is given special status
Or the UK, including Northern Ireland, leaves the customs union, there is no border on the UK side, and what the Republic / EU do on their side is entirely up to them and nothing to do with the UK.
The only people demanding a hard border are the EU.
Indeed. And having the sheer effrontery to expect the British government to design it for them.