Labour have finally picked their candidate for the Manchester Gorton by election, probably set to take place on May 4th alongside the local elections, but who the hell knows. Given they now have a candidate in place, I don’t see why Labour wouldn’t one, want it over with as soon as possible; two, on that same note, give Galloway as little time as possible to campaign in the constituency, and three, in a worst-case scenario, at least having the by election on the same day as the locals means that Labour losing an ultra-safe seat gets buried in the larger national story (which will be Labour losing a massive amount of seats across the country, but hey, you might as well bury all the bad news at once).
Can George Galloway do what he did in Bradford West five years ago and create a massive swing away from Labour towards himself? I don’t think so. Unless Labour really, really, really screw this up (which is obviously not out of the question), I don’t know if Galloway has time, and further whether the seat is really right for him. He was a visible figure in the Leave campaign, and that can be used against him. This begs the question, could the Lib Dems take the seat, given it was over 60% Remain? I don’t think so either. Perhaps if Galloway polls reasonably well, splitting the Labour vote one way while the Lib Dems split it another, the LDs could come through the middle. But I’d rate the chances of this happening as remote.
I think the most likely scenario is that Labour holds the seat, and probably holds it comfortably. And even in the most apocalyptic scenario I can imagine come the next general election, this will be one of the thirty-odd seats the Labour Party retains. In northern seats in which the Tories have no hope, I don’t think Labour needs to worry. At least, not just yet.
Nick, a good post, but a few more factors merit attention:
1: The by-election is due to the passing of a sitting Labour MP who had an enormous personal vote established over several decades.
2: How much of this personal vote is transferable to a new Labour candidate is questionable, due to Labour being in a mess not only nationally but locally.
3: Don’t forget that Lib Dems have had councillors in every council ward in the constituency not so long ago, making Lib Dems the obvious main contender to Labour here.
4: Next door, the Manchester Withington constituency for years had a Lib Dem MP.
5: Labour held all 96 seats on Manchester City Council, but Lib Dems managed to snatch one seat back with a large majority in the last local elections by focussing their local resources in Manchester Withington constituency. Now the Lib Dem are focussing their local and national efforts on the Manchester Gorton constituency.
6: By selecting a sitting Euro-MP as their candidate, Labour seem set to lose some votes as it smacks of their candidate jumping ship to do his personal Brexit to save his political career. The immediate reaction of locals on the doorstep is not fit to print.
7: Labour – and Galloway – were slow off the mark, allowing the Lib Dems to gain traction on the doorstep where it matters.
my guess is the turnout will be the lowest ever in a by-election !