While most of the political world is engaged in the culture war around Brexit, I like to have fun thinking of all the possible constitutional and other assorted crises it might throw up. I thought of one last night that has to do with a possible second referendum scenario.
Whatever anyone tells you, Theresa May seems to be aiming for the softest possible Brexit imaginable. Whatever big talk there is from her and the Brexity end of the cabinet every once in a while, this has been signified with every step of the negotiations. The idea that the Commission is going to box her further into a corner on the Irish border and then she’s going to turn around and shout “no deal then!” and walk away strikes me as deeply ludicrous. As a result of this, for the sake of the scenario I’m about to paint, imagine that the final Brexit deal is Norway Plus and that for whatever reason the ERG types swallow this for the sake of, you know, not ripping apart the Conservative Party and handing the keys to Number 10 to Mr Corbyn.
Let us also say that we manage to get a second referendum – but the two choices on offer are take the deal or no deal at all. In other words, there is no “stay in” option presented, just May’s way or the Rees-Mogg way. My question here is, what do Remainers do then? Either direction makes for horrible choices. It could be argued they should campaign for May’s deal, since it is the soft Brexit most of them have been arguing for since June 2016 and is objectively better than no deal. Yet you could also argue that a vote for no deal makes Brexit weirdly less likely, or at least represents one last throw of the dice, as a constitutional crisis might arise when it looks like we are about the crash out of the EU with no preparation whatsoever and possible depression looms. I myself really don’t know which option Remainers should go for, were this scenario to arise. But someone might want to start thinking about it seriously.
Hopefully, this all never arises. But it’s funny how many weird, previously unthinkable scenarios Brexit presents. I still think there might be a twist in the tail – equally, I could easily also imagine May gets Norway Plus, parliament votes to accept it and then that’s the end of the whole discussion except amongst a reasonably small group of Remainer hardcores.
Whatever anyone tells you, Theresa May seems to be aiming for the softest possible Brexit imaginable
Yes… and no.
I think it’s becoming increasingly clear that what May intends to do is negotiate the softest transition period possible, one that is all-but-indistinguishable from EU membership, but which has a built-in hard end date. In effect, extending the Article 50 period from 2 years to… whenever the transition period ends.
Tory Remainers and soft-Leavers will go along with it as it’s soft Brexit, Tory hard-Leavers will along with it because the guaranteed end date means they can still have everything to play for in the medium term.
She will then resign, and leave her successor the task of deciding what the UK should do after that end date passes. If they want, they can do nothing and have no-deal, just delayed by a couple of years. Or they can try to extend the transition period indefinitely, if the rest of the EU will have it. Or something in between. Or they could try and kick the can down the road by having another time-limited extension.
But whatever, May will go saying that she has dug the Tory party out of the hole she put them in in June 2017, she’s given breathing time for the Party to properly consider who they want as her successor, with the candidates each having to set out their stall for how they think the UK should go post-real-Brexit, and what happens next is quite rightly up to them, not her.
Because nobody will notice much difference during the transition period or shortly afterwards, and because the Labour party is unelectable in its current state (just wait until MPs have to start saying during the campaign that they don’t want their leader to be Prime Minister), the 2022 election will go Tory again, possibly narrowly, possibly even convincingly this time (wouldn’t that be a thing).
It will be interesting to see what Remainers do in the transition period. Will they accept that once Article 50 day passes, the battle to Remain is lost, and concentrate on trying to influence the future direction of the country? Or will they immediately start agitating for Re-entry?
Nick,
I think it’s absolutely outrageous if Theresa Maybe goes for a ‘soft’ brexit. We voted brexit. And that’s a fact. We should just be out! Out I say! And if there’s any rolling back it’s a disgrace and it’ll prove that the European Union is an undemocratic, silly little nonsense.
The EU is a neoliberal, capitalist project, that gives very little about the people who have to live under its bureaucracy.
A bit more positivity from you Nick would do a world of good.
Nick –
“Let us also say that we manage to get a second referendum – but the two choices on offer are take the deal or no deal at all. In other words, there is no “stay in” option presented,
I would have thought that was an extremely likely and logical second referendum question. Deal or No Deal?
“I could easily also imagine May gets Norway Plus, parliament votes to accept it and then that’s the end of the whole discussion except amongst a reasonably small group of Remainer hardcores.”
And this is just as easily imaginable whether Mrs May gets Norway-Plus, Canada-Plus, Switzerland-Plus or Vanuatu-Plus. The point is this: once a deal is in place (more or less) and the UK’s EU membership has formally ended on 29 March 2019, (and the loose ends settled by 31 December 2020), the attention of a bored media and fickle public will wander on to other pressing domestic matters – and the two main parties will each have good reasons to move it on before the next UK national election is due in 2022; the European Unionist party – sorry, I mean the Liberal Democrats – not so much.
Mays government would have to be exceptionally popular to be able to survive an invitation for a good kicking. In any case it is inconceivable that May would be able to front any kind of a campaign
What is this ‘Norway plus’ when it will be ‘Norway minus’? Not only ‘minus’, but also minus the oil, minus the fish and it is looking like minus EFTA.
‘Cory Bin’ has a rather leaden footed attempt at satire, whilst Paul W is unconsciously funnier with his (apparently) straight faced “once a deal is in place (more or less) and the UK’s EU membership has formally ended on 29 March 2019, (and the loose ends settled by 31 December 2020)”.
Nick appears to be suggesting that May has a plan and a strategy, that she does know where she is heading. To believe this would be to have to believe that there has been an incarnation of a May, other than that who previously ran the Home Office.
May 2020 is when post Brexit negotiations would have to be tied up. So far as I can see the same DUP, the same Tory headbangers and the same global trade, obdurately protectionist contradictions will will still be there. I do not think plan or strategy enters into it.
Just for the record, I never said Mrs May has a plan nor a strategy – just an inevitable destination given the situation and her temperament and approach.
“whilst Paul W is unconsciously funnier with his (apparently) straight faced “once a deal is in place (more or less) and the UK’s EU membership has formally ended on 29 March 2019, (and the loose ends settled by 31 December 2020)”.”
Not unconscious Martin. I chose my words carefully. Too much emphasis is put on the short-term process of Brexit. The political effects of Brexit will be more important in the long-term.
Unfortunately Martin, I wasn’t trying to be satirical. The EU is a nonsense and that’s that.