An extension to the Article 50 period now seems inevitable. There was never any chance of a withdrawal agreement being reached and Johnson was never serious about trying to get one, nor was the EU going to bend for anything that made things worse than the May deal from their perspective. The government is pretending it has a way of getting around the Benn Act since they want to maximise the notion that the extension has been done very much against their will.
When the extension is in place, the next argument for the opposition to have is what to do now. Some credence is being given to the idea that opposition MPs could look to go for another EU referendum instead of a general election. There are several problems with this possible plan.
One, in order to do it, the present government would have to be brought down and another government that was favourable to the idea of another referendum happening taking its place. Corbyn has made it clear he will not step aside; several key blocs from the opposition will not put Corbyn into Number 10. The reasons for them not wanting to do this are sensible, and Remainers who complain about this should think about it in more detail. Putting Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman or whomever into Number 10 is pretty much without risk. Here are people at the end of their careers who could be trusted to act as temporary custodians of the nation in order to carry out the collective will of those who have put them there. With Corbyn, it’s a different story. He clearly wants to be the prime minister – why else would he be the leader of the opposition? – and the post of prime minister comes with a lot more power than a lot of well meaning Remainers have stopped to consider. Corbyn could fill all sorts of posts with cronies if he wanted to, for instance. Now, maybe you trust Corbyn not to do this, but I don’t see why you feel so sure. If he’s going to be looking to solidify his stay in Number 10 with a general election, I don’t see why he wouldn’t want to use the position of prime minister as much as possible to shape Britain in the way that he wishes as soon as he was residing on Downing Street. Plus, he holds the Labour whip, which would unbalance this coalition of the opposition parties in a way a much more neutral individual would not.
I don’t see how without a change of government you could have a second EU referendum. There would be money involved, which would require a minister’s approval. It is just too large an undertaking for the opposition, however united in this task they may be (and that is open to question as well, at least over the period necessary), to execute.
Like it or not, I think we need a general election. I understand the argument that it very well might not resolve the Brexit issue – on balance of probability, it probably won’t. I also understand Remainers fears of a Tory victory, or a much more Leaver oriented parliament emerging. But stop and think about these arguments for a moment. If you want a referendum, you still need Remain to win. If Remain can’t win a general election, it will struggle to win a referendum. I can hear the arguments against what I’ve just said already: Johnson could get a majority on 35% of the vote when he’d need 50% to win a referendum; getting the Remain vote out would be more clear cut in a referendum scenario. But for all of that, I still say: given where we are, with Boris Johnson as prime minister, holding onto a majority of -45, we need an election. There is almost no way around that, unless Corbyn is willing to step aside and let someone else form a government and there is no reason to think that he will, or from his own perspective, should. Like it or not, a general election seems unavoidable.
L says
Sarah Wollaston tweeted the figures for Corbyn to win a VoC (https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1179520731027251201) on 2nd October. Even with Heidi Allen joining the Lib Dems he has a majority of -48, even worse than Boris’ and the Lib Dems supporting him, rather than abstaining would not be enough to swing the vote. It is the ex-Tory independents whose support for an alternative PM is critical.
Richard Gadsden says
The only argument I can see that Corbyn might favour for setting up a GNU with anyone else as PM is that he could pick a Tory who is restanding in the next election and see if they can use patronage to crack some of the more venal Tories out of the party (the Nicky Morgan/Amber Rudd types).
If he could deepen the split in the Tory party, and weaken Boris Johnson into the bargain, then that might increase his chances in the General Election enough to be worth the sacrifice.
Roger Lake says
I’m not well up in these matters, possibly because I can remember the end of the last War, and especially who lost it. Well, most European countries, for a start, though some were always on the winning side, especially after they’d lost it. And I remember the playground arguments. The seven-year old experts — I was five — could not agree whether it was the war-avoiders Sweden or the war-winners Britain, that had the world’s second-highest Standard of Living, after the USA. Today, we come about 22nd in the world. And who comes top, in Europe? One of the war-losers.
The point of this rambling? To suggest that while I agree that we should try to defeat now the schemes of the PM and his disreputable forces we should already be considering the General Election in 2024 or thereabouts. If things go badly in the next few months, think how they will be in 2024, if the prophets are right. The UK will be in a right mess, after this quasi war. The party of the PM who cracked the dam and released the destructive torrent, and the PM who is trying now to complete the disaster, will surely between them have brought to ruin the party that chose them. What chance will that party have of winning any election in 2024?
By all means, let’s frustrate them now if we can. But we must NOW be beginning to prepare for GE 24. That will be eight years or so since our Munich — eight years of new voters with no rose-tinted past, eight years of nostalgic crumblies like me moved past voting. And the populace in between trying to rebuild and to heal our present ruptures and bruises. Now is the year to begin considering what radical policies for radical change the Lib Dems and other parties should be shaping and arguing, for implementation by a civilised coalition elected by PR.