Coming into tonight, if I was honest, I figured it was going the Tories’ way. Miliband’s refusal to admit that Labour had overspent on Question Time added to the five pledges stone monument made you think that Labour had blown it. But I never thought they’d be down below 240. Or that the Tories would get a majority. No one thought that, remember? The only way the Conservatives could possibly get that is if they completely wiped out the Lib Dems. Oh.
I suppose from a Lib Dem perspective, can it now be deemed a mistake to have gone into coalition? No, I don’t think so, for two reasons. One, there’s no point in being in politics unless you’re going to try and get your policies put into legislation. Opposition is nowhere, whatever anybody says about it. But also, this was coming no matter what. In 2010, the Lib Dems failed to cross the Rubicon. The Coalition essentially bought the party five more years of life as a significant parliamentary force. Had there been a second election, I’m surer than ever that the Lib Dems, while probably not on single figures like today, would have suffered huge losses. And we would have had a Tory majority – on that, I’m now more certain than ever.
For Labour, the night was pretty much as disastrous as it was for the Liberal Democrats. Ed Balls losing his seat was the “Portillo moment” if there really was one this time round. The SNP indeed wiped everyone out in Scotland as feared. Either the unions will now bugger off, properly disaffiliate, or will demand the party goes further to the left, thus further into the electoral wilderness.
Reviewing this parliament as a binary game, one between the Tories and Labour, you can now see how the Tories grand strategy worked amazingly well; their opponents fell into every trap. Many of us, myself over and over again, warned Labour that if the Lib Dems were crushed, it would almost certainly mean we woke up to a Tory majority on May 8th. And I take no joy in being right about that. They thought UKIP was no threat to them, although Ed Balls now stands as a martyr to that misconception. The Tories wanted Labour to go to the left and for the Lib Dem vote to plummet, allowing them to take seats that used to be theirs’ pre-1997. Both happened as planned. I thought the Tories were finished as a mighty electoral machine. I wish I hadn’t been so wrong about that.
Where the left of centre in this country goes from here, I don’t know. I’m worried about what the Tories on their own are capable of – Jesus, if you thought the austerity of the last five years was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet, folks – on Europe, on human rights, on criminal justice. I’m worried not just for this parliament but also for the next few to come. Unless something incredible happens, we could be stuck with the Tories for a long time to come.
Any positives from last night? UKIP failed to breakthrough, and as I write, Farage looks to have lost in South Thanet. Those are the only good things I can think of.
So now, my only hope for the country is that Cameron and Osborne can keep us in the European Union and that the liberals within the Tory ranks are able to stop the right wing from dominating the agenda. That’s not much to go on, but I’m afraid it’s all we’ve got.
Great article as ever. Don’t want to appear pedantic, but do you mean the LibDem unionists in Scotland, when you say the “unions” should bugger off, etc…?
I think he means the trade unions.
The country has another 5 years of pain – you are right. As the poorer weaker part of our society now suffers full Tory Policies – the last 5 years may seem ‘happy/good times’ in comparison.
Now is the time to return to radical Liberal roots – we have nothing to lose – and all to gain,
Ahem. Called it: https://nicktyrone.com/the-tories-and-the-right-wing-press-have-turned-all-their-fire-on-the-snp-its-another-misstep/#comment-417308
Though when I wrote, ‘[The Tories] have to destroy Labour’s attempts to look like a safe pair of hands’ I didn’t quite foresee that Ed Miliband would go on Question Time, wait for an audience member to have him a loaded pistol in the form of asking him to admit that the last Labour government spent too much, thank said audience member, calming put it to his forehead, and blow his electoral brain out on live television.
Nope, didn’t see that one coming.
(But I have to hand it to the Tories’ strategists, who clearly did… well, not that exactly, but their campaign was based on the premise that at some point Ed would do something colossally stupid, and while he kept them guessing right up to the last minute, it turns out that that was a safe bet after all).
Totally agree – the next 5 years will be a worry for both Labour and Lib Dems and how they react to these results will, hopefully, give us some indication of how both plan to resurrect themselves as a credible Party
Murdoch and the tory’s bandwagon rolls on, and now we have five whole years of being ruled by the corporations. England, I am so very disappointed in you.
Yes, Murdoch is strengthened by his alliance the Scottish seperatists too. Even heavier losers than your party are the beleagured unionists in Scotland. Despite forming a majority, they have virtually no representation at all, and the half-witted Little Englandism we’re likely to see will alienate even the hitherto loyal.
I adhere to no party, but I did appreciate the efforts of Steve Webb and Julian Huppert, who are both one with Nineveh and Tyre at this point. The conclusion I have reached, this is the fourth time I’ve said it and the only time I can hope for someone who agrees with me, is that electoral reform is what we need. I thus donated to the Electoral Reform Society earlier on.
And if it’s silver linings you’re after, the unpleasant David Ward is one Lib Dem that even his own party won’t mourn. And the even more rancid George Galloway was also ousted in a rare outburst of sense from Bradfordians. I’ll also be shedding no tears at all for Esther McVey. Also Aidan Burley has taken his unpleasantry off the stage.
The best thing that happened on Thursday was the idiot Balls losing his seat. Maybe if he now spends 5 years doing a real job in the real world he can be re elected to Parliament and make a useful contribution. Trying to be chancellor on t
Without meaning to be disparaging, the Lib Dems entered a ride into the unknown as soon as they entered into a coalition with the conservatives. That ride has ended in more unknowns. The Lib Dems entered a black loop that no amount of analysis can ease.
The man in the street would tell you that the moment Nick Clegg made his move joining forces with Cameron, he was already a dead man walking. The party was doomed. It seems like obvious rhetoric but that’s it because it is and was so bloody obvious.
With regards to the point that the Lib Dems should be in politics to govern and push some of their policies through, well at what cost? At the cost of sacrificing all of the big policies and also being held to account in the next election? Being held to account in this election has meant that effectively the Lib Dems have all but been eviscerated. It’s even worse than most people thought. No amount of data, number crunching or blogging can soothe this. The fact that it’s also looking like so many Lib Dems voted tactically for the Conservative party in various constituencies further erodes their credibility.
For those few worthy but piecemeal policies the Lib Dems managed to push through, all anyone in opposition needs to do for the next five years is bellow ‘Tuition Fees’ or ‘Bedroom Taxes’ and immediately the public perception of the Lib Dems is altered, sharpened and the mind returns to the Coalition and the scapegoats that it seems were pushed into the limelight by Cameron’s exceptionally slick machine to face Murdoch’s press. Naivety of the highest order.
I would argue that if the Lib Dems had opted out and let the Tories chug along they would still have Clegg at the helm and would have a LOT more seats with which to influence Westminster. It’s a tragedy and almost everyone apart from the Lib Dems could see it coming.
Some very serious thought is needed. The data analysis should be kicked to the kerb and some genuine soul searching done instead.
Labour are suffering from the inertia of what used to be their core support. I don’t want to make sweeping generalisations, but everyone I know who is in receipt of benefits, could not be bothered to vote, and in some cases had not even registered to vote. The aspirational workers now place themselves in the middle ground. I think Labour will have to rebrand completely if they are to excite any interest among those who see themselves as just swept along by the tide.
The LDs did have to go into coalition after the last election.
In the naive hope that the electorate would respect his ability to compromise and tackle the deficit whilst also worried about the British perception of coalitions failing to govern, Clegg did 2 very stupid things.
1. Tuition fees – u-turning on a key pledge made them no better than the others. It immediately alienated a big chunk of core spt. Madness.
2. Looking so happy about buddying up w the Tories. Terrible PR. Reluctantly accept the responsibility & mkt it as a duty to hold the Tories to account but openly admit as the Jnr partner that the LDs will only be able to win certain battles inc the key pledges. I.e don’t end up being perceived as being responsible for everything bad w the govt.
I actually think that generally the LD vote did go to Labour; just that a lot of Lab went to UKIP/SNP whilst UKIP went to Con in the seats the Tories needed it to.
In that one reply you have almost crystallised everything that went wrong with Lib Dem thinking. It’s amazing.
I would also love to know what ‘Radical Lib Dem Roots’ are. The rest of the nation clearly has no idea what you mean.
The Lib Dems want to reform the prison system, for instance? Ok, talk to prisoners. (that won’t happen and never did).
They’d like to convince the nation they have ideas on social housing? Where do I start?
In the end the Lib Dems became a party of bland number crunchers, academics really ‘nice’ people, who were willing to do almost anything for a second term marriage with the Conservatives. Utterly obsolete. And now, with only eight seats, a national joke.
I really want to be kinder but it’s just impossible.
So please, someone tell me what ‘Radical Lib Dem Roots’ actually means, other than total and utter group self delusion and a John Cleese video snip.
And this fucking self important blog!
I mean ‘fuzzy thinking’. The Lib Dems DID NOT have to go into a coalition with the Conservative party. There were other choices. They chose the pull of power. And that’s fine. But now it’s all over.
Accept it. Deal with it.
I mean ‘fuzzy thinking’. The Lib Dems DID NOT have to go into a coalition with the Conservative party. There were other choices. They chose the pull of power. And that’s fine. But now it’s all over.
Accept it. Deal with it.