I need to start off by saying that I very badly got the election wrong in terms of what I predicted, being sure of a Tory landslide right up until the exit poll was released last night. So take everything I say for a while with a grain of salt as my finger is not on the pulse of the nation at present, clearly. Yet while I can’t predict what is in the minds of 40 million or so voters up and down the country, it seems to me getting clear at least what we’re in for in the coming weeks.
For all the cheering from the Left, this result is only good in any way by context. If you thought that Labour was facing existential wipeout, going below the 200 seat mark for the first time in a very, very long time, then gaining 30-odd seats off the Tories can look like a stonking victory. But it was still a loss, even thought the Tories didn’t win either. Worse, Corbyn is totally vindicated by the result, and has now solidified his leadership for as long as he wants it. What do the moderates do now? In one sense, they know Labour will be in the hands of the hard left for the foreseeable future, so why bother to hang around? On the other hand, they have just witnessed the strength of the Labour brand at work. There is clearly a large craving for a Labour government amongst a lot of the population, and if they could win round centrist voters I could imagine Labour getting a large majority – so too could the Labour moderates, no doubt. A new party wouldn’t have that going for it. So what the hell do they do?
The Lib Dems had a good night, but again in context. Seen from when the general election was called, ending up with 12 seats (at time of writing – there are some recounts underway) would have seemed like a real disappointment, particularly when you throw Clegg losing his seat into the mix and the fact that without the SNP’s meltdown, it would have been a really bad result. But given the campaign’s failure to launch, the Lib Dems have ended up happy. Yet you have to ask where the party goes from here. Other than the few places where it managed to win, the Lib Dem vote was down, even on 2015.
Finally, and I have been very wrong of late so again, take this with a pinch, but the way I see it by far the most likely government now is a Tory-DUP coalition, with May as PM for a few months before Boris becomes prime minister. That hardly seems like something progressives should be cheering about myself. Also, there is a lot of talk on social media about the idea that we’re going to be staying in the single market now for sure, or maybe even that Brexit will be reversed. For context, the DUP aren’t Northern Irish Tories – more like Northern Irish UKIP. I can only see Brexit getting harder from where we are now than if May had ended up with a comfy majority, particularly since the argument can be made that Labour campaigned on a hard Brexit as well meaning most of the country still voted for it. Again, maybe I’m missing something, but that’s what it seems like from here.
I’ll close by saying I won’t be making hard predictions about general elections again, so you can all relax on that front!
Would the DUP really be up for being the enablers for a hard Brexit with its implications for the Irish border? Somehow I don’t think so.
It all depends, there are plenty of Tory MPs who won’t want a hard Brexit, it just depends on whether they decide to push the issue, if they do, even with the DUP May will struggle to stick to her guns on Brexit, if not, then we’re all in for hard times.
You and other nay-sayers need to reflect on the fact that, not only did you get it wrong, you also made no contribution to Labour’s increased vote. In fact you actively helped undermine it. The best thing now would for you and others who have been proved so out of touch to actually consider the legitimacy of your opinions. Put more crudely, maybe shut-up for a while and allow those with more positive agendas to get on with good work.
I am excited to see you deliver your positive agenda. What should I look out for first?
P.S. Since when was it illegitimate for someone to have an opinion?
if you lay claim to a public voice you must accept the legitimacy of your opinions being questioned.
Legitimacy: The … “ability to be defended with logic or justification; validity.”
@nick stewart – no mate it’s just a different point of view! Replacing Tory arrogance with Labour arrogance will get short shrift
DUP would take a hard border with the republic over any changes in status whatsoever re: links to the rest of the UK, every time. In this they are almost alone in the province.
… and now, being supported by the tories could prove a disaster for Irish politics. Theresa May is being incredibly short-sighted about this and is playing a selfish game with the peace there. Then again, given the history of English dominance in Ireland, it’s hardly a surprise.
Nick often talks sense even if he gets it wrong . Rather like the other Nick we miss today.
I feel those of us who were once Labour and for years Liberal Democrat, who are scathing about Corbyn and fair to him and do both or any in between obviously from a position of principle , need to be active in the new scenario.
Many a generation or two older than me, from Sir Vince to Baroness Shirley, are progressive, Liberal , Social Democratic, the lot, but mainstream and centre or centre left.
We now must contribute to a new unity , of something different.
Corbyn did well. Tim didn’t do to badly either. May is in number 10 with reactionaries lurking hither and thither !
Yes … but worse than reactionaries. Have you looked at the DUP? Their views are repugnant – on sexuality, social progress, racism, and violence. They are rampantly homophobic, racist and want to curtail women’s rights. They’ve had clear links to protestant paramilitaries and to South African and US white supremacists. We are being asked to accept them as arbiters of UK power. This is untenable and can not stand. (I’m from the North and was brought up in a DUP community so I speak from experience, not ideology.)