In the summer of 2016, if you’d asked me how likely was the chance that in the end we wouldn’t leave the EU, I would have said very, very, very low. Like, asteroid hitting the Earth and wiping out all life in Earth in the next week level of statistically unlikely. The Leavers had won a referendum and basically had control of the leaderships of the two main parties. I couldn’t see how from there we could end up not leaving the European Union.
Since then, the Brexiteers have made unforced error after unforced error, weakening their hand slowly but surely until we get to where we are now: over a million people marched this weekend in favour of remaining in the EU, while Nigel Farage rallied for Leave in front of around a hundred people in a mostly deserted car park. Whatever you wish to say about security measures and the “Brexity people” and “those who like going on marches” circles on a Venn diagram having little crossover, the optics of this were very, very bad for Brexit. Meanwhile, over 5 million people signed a government petition asking for Article 50 to be revoked. In the summer of 2016, the most passionate Europhiles in Westminster were scared of saying anything stronger than we should try and stay in the Single Market, just to put this all in context.
Also over the weekend, there arose rumours of a plot to get rid of Theresa May and replace her with an interim leaver. David Lidington, Hunt and Gove were mentioned. However, it seems like the cabinet couldn’t decide between them, and several had strong feelings against one or more of the potential candidates. This is a microcosm of the problem facing both the Conservative party and Brexit in general: there is not only no consensus on the way forward, but all parties to the debate are so divided there is no room for compromise.
Think about where Brexit lies at present. No one really wants May’s deal, so that looks destined to die; there is a split between Norway Plus and second referendum, one that could be solved through leadership but since we have none, that isn’t going to happen; parliament won’t let no deal happen. Where does that leave us then? Most likely, May stays PM until the week of April 12th and gets Lidington to go to Brussels to get her long extension for her. Then, she’s probably finished, right? Given she won’t step down voluntarily and the Conservative parliamentary party is clearly terrified of the next leadership contest as it could spell the end of the party, not necessarily.
Summary: no way to get rid of May, no way to accept her deal which remember, is the only deal the EU will sign off on, Norway Plus seems to lack numbers, as does a second referendum, particularly as the Labour leadership are paying it the finest lip service. Since we’ll never actually leave on a no deal, this points to staying in. How? As we’ve seen already, the pull of the referendum result gets fainter the further away in time it gets. This is logical: if you had a government who had done nothing for five years and everyone hated it, you would have a general election. If after five years, the referendum result still can’t be acted upon, it looks more and more reasonable to do something other than take the referendum result. You can’t shout at me for saying this, but this is obviously true and more and more people are believing it.
This was, of course, the whole point of Article 50: to make it as hard for any state to leave as possible.
I think it’s more 50/50. Stopping us leaving altogether still requires MPs to have the courage to vote for either revoking Article 50 (which will take an Act, so they will have to do it in full public glare) or for a long extension. That will cost a whole bunch of them, the ones in Leave constituencies, their seats. They haven’t shown any indications so far of being that brave.
Plus, yes, the momentum of the referendum mandate is fading. But there are ways it could be given another boost. For example:
If the European elections happen, there’ll be a Brexit Party landslide; remember UKIP got over a quarter of the vote last time, they will only build on that with defectors form the other main parties angry that Brexit hasn’t happened yet. That will give new impetus to the referendum result. (Indeed if these election shappen they will be seen, by all sides, as effectively a second referendum).
If there’s a new general election before we leave, it too will be overshadowed by Brexit as even the last one wasn’t. Up until now, MPs have basically been arguing betwen themselves about how best to overturn the referendum result. A general election will force them to appeal directly to the public, a public who will be incredulous that we haven’t yet left, for votes, and therefore force a lot of them who have tried to get away with ambiguity and hiding behind ‘oh Parliament can’t agree’ to nail their colours to the mast.
Basically as long as the actual electorate are frozen out of the process, then yes, it becomes easier and easier to pretend that they have lost interest. But you can’t ignore the electorate forever
You say parliament won’t let no deal happen but other than voting for the WA how exactly is it going to stop it? All the signs are that the EU see no deal as the most likely outcome. I wouldn’t assume they’ll grant another extension either. Unless a credible plan backed by a stable majority emerges from parliament I think some in the EU will conclude no deal is inevitable and best done now rather than later.
To avoid no deal requires competence and leadership. Therefore no deal was always, and continues to be, a very likely outcome.
This is much the same point as I was about to make.
It’s all well and good Parliament declaring that they don’t want no deal, but If MPs continue to fail to reach a decision then the UK will crash out of the EU on April 12th.
Would there be a Brexit Party landslide? What evidence is there for that?
Who do you think the 17 million plus people who voted Leave in the referendum are going to vote for? That’s more than the entire turnout in the 2014 EU elections, so if even half of them turn out and vote for the Brexit Party — and why wouldn’t they, if the vote is explicitly framed as ‘we shouldn’t even be having this vote, they didn’t listen to you, show them you’re still there and you still care’, which, you know, it clearly will be — then that’s a Brexit party landslide for sure.
Some remainers — not all, but some — really seem to think that if they can just find the right legal loophole or cheat code to get Article 50 revoked, then politics will reset to the 22nd of June 2016 and we can all just carrying pretending like the last three years didn’t happen. But that just won’t happen.
(It’s already been established that party loyalties are weaker in the Euro-elections, because people who would normally vote for, say, Labour are happier to make a protest vote there knowing that it won’t mean they end up with a Conservative government, and vice versa. Hence UKIP topping the polls in 2014. So a lot of people who might, say, hold their nose and vote Conservative in a general because they are afraid of Corbyn in Number 10, even though they hate the government’s handling of Leaving, will take the oportunity of a ‘free shot’ without much consequence and vote Brexit Party. Similarly Labour Leavers.
If you think this won’t happen I think you have to explain why.)
Ever noticed those who voted leave are shy to come out in huge numbers
What are they ashamed of
Privacy and anonymity of the polling booth
Where nobody can see the deed or know
Wow, I knew Remainers were full of contempt for the democratic process, but I didn’t realise they were actually against secret ballots!
Good try read what I said nothing to do with democracy and secret ballots
The shame of being seen in public as a leave supporter in huge numbers
Let’s see if parliamentary democracy is upheld
That will shake you leavers to the core
That is democracy
If the pm and government ignore parliament a indicative vote victory for a soft brexit
They break the ministerial code and would be acting illegally
So says the attorney general according to peston
Choice is clear maybot accepts this and destroys her party or calls election and uncle jeremy walks into 10 alone or with the snp happy days
Nah, more likely is she resigns, new true-blue Leave Conservative leader is elected (the party membership won’t accept anything less this time, having been once bitten), she or he calls an immediate election, wins a thumping majority off the combination of new-leader bounce and Corbyn’s unpopularity.
Hilarious
A austerity party with a brexit leader gove or the blond buffoon or economics a level grade e raab
Good luck