A few months back, when Jamie Reed and Tristram Hunt both decided to stop being MPs around a similar time period, a rumour was afloat in Westminster that “dozens” of Labour members of parliament were lined up to quit politics should either Copeland or Stoke Central be lost. Since the first part of that has happened, I thought it might be prudent to speculate as to who might be the next Labour MP to quit, should this be the case.
I would like to stress adamantly that I don’t think the following Labour MPs are actually going to quit, nor do I have inside knowledge that they are thinking about doing so. I’m simply looking at a combination of these factors:
- dislike of Corbyn and the leftward direction since the last general election
- the marginality of the seat (no point in storming off if your seat is safe and Labour will just keep it, right?)
- the factor of the seat possibly being extensively redrawn or eliminated altogether by the time of the next general election.
So here goes. I will state again that I am not announcing these MPs impending political retirements – I am simply taking the three factors above, applying them across the PLP and then deducing who would be most likely to shove off should there actually be a plan afoot to destabilise Corbyn with the membership via by-election defeats. Also, a huge factor in both Reed and Hunt’s resignations was a great job luring them away, so there are undoubtably external factors that go into all of this even if a plan is currently taking shape.
1. John Woodcock
Barrow in Furness almost went to the Tories in 2015 – Woodcock retained the seat by a mere 795 votes. Given national vote swings towards the Conservatives since then, the fact that neighbouring Copeland (which was a little safer for Labour in 2015 than Barrow) has just gone Tory, and the fact that it is only set to get a little more Conservative-friendly with the 2018 boundaries coming in, as the constituency takes in more rural communities to the north of its current arrangements, you have to wonder.
Add to this the fact that Woodcock has been one of the most, if not the most vocal disparager of Corbyn within the PLP (and this is really saying something), and clearly John seems the prime candidate to leave next.
On the flipside, Woodcock has devoted his adult life thus far to the Labour Party, as a parliamentary researcher, then a SpAd, then as an MP. He’d have to really think there was no hope for Labour to walk away. If he does, it is an ominous sign for the party.
2. Mary Creagh
A candidate for the party leadership on the right of the party, Mary has been mostly silent in all the kerfuffle since, but given she had ambitions to be leader you have to wonder why, other than the thrill of being in the bosom of the almighty Labour Party, she would want to stick around. Her seat, Wakefield, is another Lab-Tory marginal in the north; boundary changes will alter this little, other than to possibly become actually slightly easier for Labour to win (it is getting a bit of Hemsworth, John Trickett’s constituency, a very safe Labour seat). Then again, with the decline of the Labour vote coming and the rise of the Tory vote, Labour would be lucky to hold this one in 2020 regardless.
3. Ben Bradshaw
A former secretary of state for culture, media and sport, Bradshaw must know that unless he does something bold and join another party, his days of getting into high office again are very, very slim. Like Creagh, he’s mostly been silent in the Corbyn period (at least, outside of parliament itself), but that could just mean he’s weighing his options in peace.
Exeter will be untouched by the boundary changes; still, it was a Tory seat for almost all of the 20th century. It went Labour from 1966 to 1970 and then was gained in ’97 and held since. Bradshaw is sitting on a majority of just over 7k, but that was only 2k after the 2010 general election, and in a by-election situation the Conservatives would very much fancy their chances.
Again, just to be clear, I am not casting aspersions on any of the above mentioned MPs and their intentions – nor am I even confirming that such a plot to quit systematically is being pursued by a portion of the PLP. I’m just having some fun here…..
What do you think about Peter Kyle? His seat must be very vulnerable and he’s a de-selection target anyway.
HIs seat, Hove, is toast in 2020 for sure. So he is a definite candidate for this…..problem is in terms of narrowing candidates down for stepping down is that it could apply to about half the PLP!