Throughout this parliament, we’ve heard a lot about Labour’s 35% strategy. This mostly involves picking off ex-Lib Dems and getting them to vote Labour. I can see why this was appealing to them. Only problem is, the psephology of it doesn’t quite work out.
The Lib Dems have 56 seats at present (they had 57 after the 2010 general election. It is minus one as a result of the whip being withdrawn from Mike Hancock). 11 of these seats are in Scotland. Now once upon a time, Labour stood to gain several of these. No longer. Any Lib Dem losses in Scotland on May 7th look almost certain to go to the SNP.
The Lib Dems currently hold 3 seats in Wales. One is Tory facing, the other has Plaid in second place, and one is Labour facing. So two nations down, Labour are one seat up if the Lib Dems completely collapse.
The rest, comprising 42 seats, are in England. Of these, 10 are Labour facing, the rest have the Tories in second, usually with Labour having no hope whatsoever. So if the Lib Dems were to collapse, the Tories would be the net beneficiaries, whatever anyone tells you. In fact, a Lib Dem collapse is the only possible way I could see the Tories getting a majority in May. The 35% strategy, on the other hand appears to offer Labour a grand total of 11 seats if all goes perfectly to plan.
Imagine that: Labour having spent all parliament ranting against the Lib Dems, only for it to result at the end of it in a Tory majority. This is an apocalyptic scenario, I’ll admit, but not a totally impossible one.
So let’s say the Labour Party wakes up to the very real possibility of this reality materialising – what can they do about it? Not much at this stage. Other than to stop talking about beheading Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and realise they face the fight of their lives on two fronts, neither of them involving the Liberal Democrats: in England versus the Tories, where how Labour do in Lab-Tory marginals will decide who is prime minister; in Scotland versus the SNP, where the very future of their party is at stake. Now, I don’t particularly care what the Labour Party does to try and save its own skin. But they probably should.
A very pertinent piece.
It is a curious aspect of our political system that parties still campaign against their own interest. Quite clearly, whilst picking up as many of the Lib dem/labour marginals (which is pretty much a given), Labour has to hope that the Lib Dems do well in the Lib Dem / tory marginals so why aren’t they doing more to help the Lib Dems differentiate themselves from the Tories?
Another aspect that I haven’t seen any comment on (possibly because it really doesn’t exist) is whether there is any incumbency benefit for Labour MPs in Scotland? Talk of the SNP getting 50+ seats seems to suggest that no Scottish Labour MP has any personal following. If there is an incumbency effect then the result may not be as disastrous for Labour as polls currently predict.
Finally, there does not appear to be any discussion of the balance of power in England and Wales/England alone. To decontaminate the EVEL issue, Labour needs a majority in England. That is unlikely by themselves so they will need a coalition or some other form of agreement to enable them to govern with legitimacy. Provided they can get enough seats to have first dibs on forming the next government, it strikes me that Labour should seek a coalition with the Lib Dems (assuming that gets them over 267/286 MPs in England/England & Wales) and then a looser agreement with the SNP for UK wide matters.
What do you think?
All seems to make sense to me. A LibDem/Labour coalition announced in advance would surely send the Lab vote where they come 3rd to the LibDems, or does anti Clegg feeling run so deep that this wouldn’t happen?
In how many Lab-Con seats would, say, a switch of 25% of Lib Dem voters in 2010 to Labour in 2015 deliver a win for Labour?
I know that would do the trick in my constituency (Brentford and Isleworth).
Of course this assumes no other votes change hands. But I’m guessing it motivates Labour thinking. If Labour gains from the Tories exceed Tory gains from the LDs, the Tories aren’t closer to a majority. Due the SNP, Labour probably aren’t either…
An attack on the lib Dems as an electoral strategy is equally about taking the Middle ground in tory-lab marginals as it is winning liberal marginals. In my own seat reading west it will decide the result and every seat labour take the tories is + 2 to a majority.