The Lib Dems did it. In what may turn out to be an era defining by-election, the Liberal Democrats took back Brecon and Radnorshire yesterday. Here are my main takeaways:
- The Lib Dem surge is real. But it is still fragile at this point
Some pundits are pointing to the fact that this was a Lib Dem seat for years and years, i.e. what’s the big deal. The Lib Dems got 29% of the vote here in the 2017 general election; 43% yesterday. They got almost 2,000 more votes out of an electorate that had shrunk by 10,000 due to lower turnout. A 14% increase in the Lib Dems’ vote share tells us that the polls putting the party at 20% are probably spot on.
However, the way that the Boris bounce was almost enough for the Tories to come from behind and win it tells us how fragile this Lib Dem surge still is. It is almost entirely based on Brexit. Those asking “what will the Lib Dems do when Brexit is finished?” still don’t really understand Brexit, so it’s a silly question. Much more pertinent is “what will the Lib Dems do if Labour dumps Corbyn and gets a decent leader?” While this looks unlikely to happen any time soon, it is still worth the Lib Dems thinking about how they solidify their appeal in case this occurs.
2. The Tories could be in trouble in an autumn election
Yesterday showed that the Lib Dems can at least win back seats previously held. Given most of them are Lib-Tory marginals, this means the Conservatives losing seats, possibly a lot of them. This problem can be mitigated to a certain extent: I think Labour’s electoral problems are much worse than most pundits imagine at present, and so I think that the Tories can take a lot of seats of Labour. Yet the Brexit Party could scupper this plan. In a worse case scenario, the Tories get squeezed by the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party enough to mean they aren’t even the largest party in a hung parliament.
3. Labour are in trouble
Yes, they were never going to win here and one cannot read in too much in their very poor showing – Labour got 5.28% of the vote yesterday, just enough to hold their deposit. But it can’t just be brushed off either, particularly in light of Labour’s poor showing in the last local elections, mixed with polling number in the 20s (often, the low 20s). This was actually a Labour seat between 1945 and 1979. Their previous worst showing in the constituency was 10.4% in 2010 – an election in which the party had been in power for over a decade and were facing a Lib Dem surge in seats like these. What yesterday showed was the extent to which the Liberal Democrats can squeeze the Labour vote, which wasn’t something that looked remotely possible on this scale even a year ago. Labour have to change leader in order to turn this all around. They won’t, so a general election looks pretty bleak for them. They’ll all say that was what everyone said in 2017. I’ll only update what I said in 2017: it’s looking even more likely now that 2017 was just apocalypse delayed for the Left.
NIck –
What you say about the Labour party both nationally and locally in Brecon & Radnorshire seems about right. It is hard to believe Labour was still competitive in this seat as recently as the 1990s. Taken together with the opinion polling from Wales published earlier this week, Labour appears to be developing similar electoral problems in Wales as it has done in Scotland.
The Lib Dems shouldn’t be too complacent about this result (though a win is better than the alternative). I’m told that the Conservative campaign was poorly organised on the ground (again) – and despite the fact that they had ample warning of a possible by-election. But failing to stand a new Conservative candidate (as Labour did for the Peterborough by-election) was inexplicably stupid.
Perhaps not so stupid.Local political scribes were,last night,suggesting that Chris Davies misdemeanors had not,contrary to outside expectations, dented his popularity within the constituency.
Not what I was told. In any case the Lib Dem majority was just 1,425.
The Tories could be in trouble in an autumn election
Again, this is why I think Boris is aiming for a spring election, once the dust from finally leaving the EU has settled and the Brexti Party no longer has a purpose (I note that the Conservatives would have needed less than half the Brexit Party votes in the by-election to turn a loss into a win).
Nick,
You say “Those asking “what will the Lib Dems do when Brexit is finished?” still don’t really understand Brexit, so it’s a silly question.” Actually I do ask the question (and have never had an answer) and I do understand quite a lot about Brexit, so what is it about Brexit that you understand that makes it silly?
David
Ireland is not going away and our other closest neighbours will still be across the Channel. What do you mean by “when Brexit is finished”?
The Withdrawal Agreement is just a prelude to much more complicated agreements (or lack thereof). The ramifications of Brexit will be a festering sore for years and years.
All sorts of political, economic and environmental decisions will be discussed in EU Councils and Parliament, agreed and implemented with the UK lobbying and trying to inject its two pennyworth. Doubtless the UK might be invited to talks, but because of the way the EU is structured, because of its democratic processes, it will always have to be on EU terms. Even when included the UK would be on the sidelines.
There is no end to Brexit. (Well, I suppose a referendum with an overwhelming remain in the EU vote would sort of end it, at least for a while)
But that’s just saying that our relationship with Europe will be constantly changing. Of course it will. It was constantly changing through all the centuries before the EU was even a gleam in Jean Monnet’s eye. Any country’s relationship with its closest neighbours will always be evolving. You might as well say that Canada’s relationship with the USA will never be finished. Or Russia’s relationship with China will never be finished. Or Japan’s relationship with Korea will never be finished.
‘Brexit’ refers specifically to the UK leaving the EU. That is a specific bounded period which will finish when the legal partnership is dissolved. Of course our relationship with the EU will continue to evolve. But the process of leaving the EU will finish.
More specifically in the context of the Liberal Democrats, the end of Brexit will require them to decide whether they want to focus on becoming a party with the main goal of rejoining the EU, something which will involve lots of things which range from unpalatable to complete anathema to the British people: joining Schengen and committing to junking the pound sterling, for a start. That’s a serious issue for the party which it doesn’t seem to have begun to grapple with.
On BBC Radio 4’s Any Questions last week. the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, made the very simple point that relations with other countries – notably on trading matters – are in a constant state of negotiation and change. His point: There is nothing new in that state of affairs. But his point seemed to go over the heads of his interlocutors.
This is how the daily tory has reported on sky news tonight
There cant be a October or November election because the conservative vote is so old that they are afraid to venture out because it’s dark
So a spring election it has to be
Has it come to this dear god
Alexander Pope would love the uk today
B y next week, it may not be in the government’s control as to whether the requirements of the fixed term parliament act can be met. If the government now lose its 1 vote majority due to any defection at all it may face a successful vote of no confidence and be forced into a general Election at a time not of its choosing. Of course it’s remotely possible, but not in my view likely, that a government of national unity is formed to stop Brexit and introduce PR and then engineer a general election or a referendum or both.
A prime minster can’t control the outcome of a vote of no confidence, but the choise of date for the general election would be in the hands of the prime minister of the day.
On the Government of National Unity, i have made this point here before and I will make it again: the Labour doesn’t do coalitions with ‘bourgeois’ (in the Marxist sense) parties – except in wartime. And this Labour party certainly won’t.
As to PR, the majority of Labour MPs wouldn’t even support the non-proportional Alternative Vote. So I think that idea is a non-starter. Another referendum on Brexit could be a possibility, but it would risk advertising Labour’s internal disagreements on the matter. Far better to sit back and leave that sort of thing to the Tories.
government of national unity is formed to […] and introduce PR
It is established precedent since 2011 that a government can’t change the voting system without putting it to the public in a referendum, and I think we’ve all had enough of referendums for a while.
Nick,
Yesterday I posted a question to you, but for some reason Martin chose to give his view on the matter. As a result, you may have missed it, but I would like to understand your insight into the matter. So here it is again.
The post was:
Nick,
You say “Those asking “what will the Lib Dems do when Brexit is finished?” still don’t really understand Brexit, so it’s a silly question.” Actually I do ask the question (and have never had an answer) and I do understand quite a lot about Brexit, so what is it about Brexit that you understand that makes it silly?
David
Nick
Wont get back to you on the blog
But remember this brexit will never be finished due to the ice age
As soon as this country disengaged with continental europe yes erg no english channel the Anglo Saxon mentality of we are special and different to europe
The never ending war between leave and remain will last as long as the eu prevails
So the double dealing liberals are on to a lifelong winner with brexit corbyn is fucked
For a nominal fee, I could write you a little script that automatically appends, “And finally, this is bad for Labour” to all your posts.
That’s the basic version. The deluxe would give you the option of “bad”, “disastrous”, “catastrophic” or “the beginning of the end”.
The one and only time the left had a chance of power
What does corbyn do on brexit
He gives the far right a chance of 5 more years
A swear this fool is a thatcher lover
Liberals must be in orgasm
‘The Lib Dems did it.*’
*With the assistance, endorsement and support from the Green Party and Plaid Cymru.