Although the political media space was too filled with Emily Thornberry’s tweet diverting attention from another UKIP victory via a defecting Tory by-election, there was, as ever, some room left for a bit of Lib Dem bashing. The Indy ran a story with the headline, “Rochester by-election: The Lib Dems knew they would suffer by entering into coalition, but no one imagined it would be this bad.” Uh, actually most of us did. Unless you are extrapolating the result in Rochester & Strood to signify the Lib Dem vote share nationwide. Then, I guess I can see what Sean O’Grady means, sort of.
Truth is, this is the kind of result we are going to see mirrored across the country come May 2015. The Liberal Democrats are going to lose a lot of deposits, being frank. Places where the party garnered thousands of votes and came second to Labour (albeit a distant second in most cases) are now going to become constituencies where our vote collapses completely. But here’s the thing: it really doesn’t matter. Because under First Past the Post, coming in second somewhere, missing first place by two votes, counts the same as coming in eighth with fourteen votes in total. All that matters is where you win. And so long as the Lib Dems can stay strong in target seats, then everything should actually be all right.
The Liberal Democrats are going to go from being a party with the least concentrated vote in the country to the most in regards to general elections. Meanwhile, I think UKIP are going to get royally done over by our electoral system. Post-Rochester and Strood by-election, my prediction on UKIP seats post-May 2015 is a grand total of two: Clacton and South Thanet. So Carswell keeps his seat, Farage gains his, while Reckless loses his back to the Tories. The by-election result was a lot better for the Conservatives than the polling indicated – and the same polling told us that the Tories would narrowly take the seat back at the general election anyhow. At the same time, I can see UKIP getting around 10% of the national vote. Again, doesn’t matter if your vote is too evenly spread under the current system.
Farage has gone on record as saying he wants to emulate the Lib Dems plan of building up local bases in order to take Westminster seats. Well Nigel, someone should have informed you that one of the twelve steps involved in that process is learning what a cruel bitch First Past the Post really can be for emerging parties. See the 1983 general election for more details.
So my message to Liberal Democrats: don’t worry about the paltry pickings in Rochester & Strood. It doesn’t signify what the political media are telling you it does. But I suspect most of you knew that already. Because after years of being done over by First Past the Post, oddly, it looks like it may come to the Lib Dems rescue next time out.
It really does matter Nick. In those Labour dominated towns we were the only ones standing up for local people downtrodden by the Labour machine. Now we are gone, there is no-one to stand up for those people. That really does matter.
famous last words:-
Comment by the Black Knight….”It’s only a flesh wound”?
Or,
Popular inscription on Memorial Stones …”Asleep”.
Or,
in keeping with the other “Legacy Parties”…”the ignorant peasants, what do they know about politics, they’ll be back…”.
Yes. Right.
Like David says, it does matter if you remember that politics exists outside Westminster. All those places where our vote has disappeared have seen hundreds of councillors unseated, while UKIP have been picking up councillors and building their base. But hey, that doesn’t really matter, because it’s not like we’re a party that’s ever relied on that local base.
I’d be inclined to agree that that argument holds only in the context of the General Election. It upsets me greatly that Labour have no Liberal Democrat thorn in their side in so many of our cities and councils now. We know what happens when they they are left to rule unchecked and it sure ain’t in the interests of vulnerable people.
While I agree with your reasoning about Rochester and Strood, we need to be very careful that we don’t let our carefully built up local government presence wither. We need a strategy for recovery that isn’t a stepping stone to Westminster because it’s a good end in itself.
You can always tell an expert! Thanks for coinbirutntg.
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