The debate rages on in Westminster: will we see a large victory for the Conservatives come June 8th, or a massive one? A lot of Tories are cautious and seem to feel it will be the former – which only makes me think the latter more likely given they won’t be taking anything for granted.
One argument that pops up again and again is that it will be harder for the Tories to take seats in the north, Midlands and Wales than many pundits think, simply because there are so many people in these places who might think of voting for someone other than Labour, but never, ever the Tories. They have a point. But they’ve overlooked another factor: turnout.
I think instead of voting Tory or anyone else for that matter, a lot of Labour voters will simply stay home on June 8th. And I do mean a lot. By doing so, the Tories will be able to take a lot of votes by sheer dint of their vote holding up while Labour’s drops. This won’t happen absolutely everywhere, of course, but I think in enough places to make the Conservative’s victory on the 8th of June massive.
This is nothing more than a theory, obviously, and I can’t read the minds of millions of Englishmen anymore than anyone else can. It’s a hunch – but one I feel deeply. And this isn’t like when I predicted that Remain would spike in the polls as the EU referendum approached; I have no real skin in this one, and on balance, would rather see a more modest Tory victory than a gargantuan one. So I’m hoping I’m wrong this time, in other words. However – partly for that very reason – I doubt I am.