The debate rages on in Westminster: will we see a large victory for the Conservatives come June 8th, or a massive one? A lot of Tories are cautious and seem to feel it will be the former – which only makes me think the latter more likely given they won’t be taking anything for granted.
One argument that pops up again and again is that it will be harder for the Tories to take seats in the north, Midlands and Wales than many pundits think, simply because there are so many people in these places who might think of voting for someone other than Labour, but never, ever the Tories. They have a point. But they’ve overlooked another factor: turnout.
I think instead of voting Tory or anyone else for that matter, a lot of Labour voters will simply stay home on June 8th. And I do mean a lot. By doing so, the Tories will be able to take a lot of votes by sheer dint of their vote holding up while Labour’s drops. This won’t happen absolutely everywhere, of course, but I think in enough places to make the Conservative’s victory on the 8th of June massive.
This is nothing more than a theory, obviously, and I can’t read the minds of millions of Englishmen anymore than anyone else can. It’s a hunch – but one I feel deeply. And this isn’t like when I predicted that Remain would spike in the polls as the EU referendum approached; I have no real skin in this one, and on balance, would rather see a more modest Tory victory than a gargantuan one. So I’m hoping I’m wrong this time, in other words. However – partly for that very reason – I doubt I am.
Taking myself as a midlands lifelong
Labour voter who was against brexit and could never vote for corvyn as pm you are right that I could never go tory. My choice is libdem re anti brexit position or abstain, not keen on farron so could well abstain this time
My real fear and belief is even labour wipe out at sub 150 seats won’t shift Corbyn until the change of rules for the succession is secured. That equals end of labour as a party of government for good
Alan Ray-Jones says
Not being keen on Farron is not a good enough reason for abstention. The issue is too important.
May is going to spend the next seven weeks spouting evasive, meaningless waffle. Corbyn on the other hand will be talking about the issues that affect the ordinary voter in a straightforward and comprehensible way. His solutions may be rubbish, and his organisational skills may be abysmal, and the Tory press are going to hand him out to dry, but I think he will come out of this campaign with his reputation enhanced, and May’s will be diminished. And plenty of other things can happen in seven weeks too – so predicting the outcome at this stage is a mug’s game.
I think [Corbyn] will come out of this campaign with his reputation enhanced
Just wait until the Tories release the first video of him speaking at an IRA memorial (I bet they’ve got dozens to dribble out between now and June) and see which way his reputation goes.
Jeremy Corbyn talks a lot of sense and is the only national party leader to hold outdoor rallies which are well attended. The problem is that most people are stupid enough to believe what the Tory press, Sky News and the BBC spouts.
I think it is very easy and safe to predict labour under corbyn will lose seats and fallback from the 2015 position, how low it goes depends on turnout as this article rightly suggests