A slender Tory majority was one of my most feared election outcomes, mostly because of one issue: Europe. I worried that if the Tories got a majority but only a very tiny one, the right of his party would hold Cameron to ransom on the subject. They would reject his calls for a renegotiation at all, saying they planned to oust him, split the party, whatever, lest they get an In/Out referendum with no strings attached pretty much immediately.
Instead, Tory unity, so far I’d like to stress, has been admirable. Cameron’s approach to the Riga summit seems to be the right one, talking tough and determined but also in a collegiate spirit with his fellow European leaders. Having Junker to Chequers is a masterstroke; one that seems obvious, but often great political moves always seem thus in retrospect. It all seems to be shaping up rather well for British pro-Europeans: a reasonable set of changes to Britain’s relationship with and within the EU, which we’d all have to concede is where the country is at with the European project for the time being, paves the way for the UK to remain in the European Union.
Some Eurosceptics will bleat (and some have started already) that a “Harold Wilson Mark 2” approach will not work; that a short, sharp set of renegotiated demands that do not even require treaty change will be seen through and rejected by the British people. This is wishful thinking on their part, as the sudden upturn in the “Stay In” option polling wise suggests. I even like the prime minister’s idea of having the whole thing in 2016: let’s get it done early and move on with our lives.
Labour meanwhile, have nothing to say of any novelty or cut through on the subject. This is simply a consequence of the outcome of the election and not their fault per se, but there’s no way for them to win on this. Either Cameron succeeds in what he’s attempting to do and looks brilliant, or he fails and Labour weren’t on the other side of the argument anyway and cannot capitalise.
I will close with the following caveat: although he’s had a great start, it could still all go pear shaped for Cameron. The path he’s on is filled with potential pot holes, any of them possibly being large enough to derail his whole mission if he hits one. But I’m heartened by a good start. For the sake of the nation and its future, I have to admit it, I’m really cheering Cameron on with this.
When would you have an EU referendum in 2016? Can’t be in May, and can’t be close enough to May for the campaign to overshadow the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections.
A referendum in September or October 2016, on the basis of a deal agreed in June, would surely not overshadow elections held four or five months earlier.
Cameron will have his honeymoon period. He’d best make hay now while the sun shines because it won’t last. It never does. And I look forward to his travails ahead in all areas… not just in Europe. For years Cameron has avoided delving into the detail of what his renegotiation will look like. He’ll have to put meat on the bone soon… and that meat won’t be sufficient for some… or to everyone’s liking.
Good news that Cameron appears to learned from the Scottish referendum – don’t let it get close to the wire and, preferably, not even within sight of the wire.
I don’t think there’s any great desire to leave Europe right now. Sure, the people who do want to leave Europe are very vocal about it but most people just don’t feel that way. I’d argue that he could hold a referendum at any time and the outcome would be a comfortable victory for staying in Europe. I’d argue that Cameron nipping this in the bud is being done to keep the wolves from his door after he went back on the claim that he’d have a referendum during the last government. He’s left himself with no option but to get on with this. I guess this will also be a good, bigger story to drown those more unpopular things that he’s attempting to force through early in the new government’s term.