I have been writing less of late, blog-wise. There are several reasons for this, not the least of which has been the birth of my son this past week, but I have to admit there are more than simple pragmatic considerations standing in the way of my standard verbosity. It has to do with the general election, or rather, one particular element of the result.
I was sure of a Tory landslide right up until the exit poll came out. Certain that not only would the Conservative Party win, but win big. The reason for this came down to one, straightforward variable: Theresa May. My impressions of May going into the general election campaign were as follows: robotic, vacuous, lacking in ideas as evidenced by her love of empty slogans, a poor public speaker and debater, vindictive, childish, and given to a political formula that seemed to involve wooing UKIPers as much as possible. Nothing she did on the campaign trail convinced me she was any better or any worse than what my previous impression of her had told me she was. Therefore, I couldn’t see why anyone else would go off her simply because she was being what she had always been.
Having heard the “red, white and blue Brexit” tosh and still given her a 60% higher net approval rating than Jeremy Corbyn, I thought the situation settled; that the nation had decided. As a result of all this, I’m still struggling a little: what did the public see of May they didn’t like in May 2017 when she was just doing what she had always done, saying the sorts of things she had always said? Is public opinion really that volatile these days?
If so, there are several things to conclude. One, Jeremy Corbyn should enjoy it while it lasts, for it seems that the British public are very much in the mood to build pedestals for flawed figures only to then knock them back to Earth with a thump even though they have changed not one iota in the interim. Two is much more serious: the upheaval we are witnessing has only just begun. If the public wants change, but has no idea what that change should even remotely look like, then ultimately no one can really change things for the better since they will never be given a chance to do so. Given the challenges we now face, that is an unpleasant thought.
Firstly – congratulations!
I think Theresa May was many of the things you said previously. But I didn’t realise HOW vacuous she was – and I think I was more down on her than many. My opinion is that people thought she was saying vacuous things, but to obfuscate (maintain a good negotiating position etc) rather than because she literally had nothing to say.
I, and I suspect others, also thought that she was strong – a ‘bloody difficult woman’. (Ok, I thought that being strong and wrong was an appalling combination, but still…) The campaign managed to highlight her least pleasant, well known, qualities (such as robotism, and a certain lack of empathy) while also managing to undermine her strengths – the U-turn on the dementia tax made her look weak, and refusing to debate other leaders didn’t support her position as a strong or able to stand up for herself.
I went off Theresa May significantly during the election. And even warmed to Corbyn somewhat. I also didn’t see that playing out sufficiently electorally to make a difference, but perhaps…
I mean, if you deliberately run a campaign as a personality cult, and manage to undermine the leader’s personality, combined with a surge in the personality cult surrounding the opposition then perhaps it isn’t so strange.
Nothing she did on the campaign trail convinced me she was any better or any worse than what my previous impression of her had told me she was. Therefore, I couldn’t see why anyone else would go off her simply because she was being what she had always been
Remember that, unlike you, 90% of the population take no notice of politics when there isn’t an election on. Those are the people who knew nothing of Theresa May except what they had picked up by osmosis through the media — that she was strong, that she was stable, that she was popular, that she was getting on with the job.
Then there was an election, so they actually started to pay attention — and they didn’t like what they saw. Mainly, I think, her lack of charisma.
So while you may have not changed your opinion of May, someone with high expectations of her, suddenly confronted with the reality… and combine that with the opposite effect for Corbyn, where people had been told he was an incompetent terrorist-sympathising seventies Marxist throwback, and turned in expecting to see a ranting hermit-like figure, only to see Corbyn on his best behaviour doing his ‘unthreatening geography teacher act’, and you have the result.
So most people, who don’t follow politics, had a fake image of May in their heads and a real image of Corbyn. then came the election and they saw the real May, and a fake Corbyn — and the comparison made May look especially bad because of the high expectations they had of her, and Corbyn look especially good because of the low expectations they had of him.
Without spending ages searching for my comment on LibDem Voice when the election was called I can’t quote my exact words, but they were something like that Theresa May would spend the campaign spouting vacuous waffle while Jeremy Corbyn would be travelling up and down the country talking about the issues that mattered to the voters. I also pointed out that you have to be getting on for forty to have a clear recollection of the IRA bombing campaign in this country and that therefore the tabloid attacks on Corbyn for his Republican links wouldn’t resonate with much of today’s electorate. Corbyn has managed to pull off the same trick as Tony Benn: a cuddly lefty who doesn’t threaten the liberal middle class, though Corbyn is Benn with a megaphone and without the intellect. It’s not a trick that would survive him getting into power though – and I’m sure he knows that. Nor has he suddenly developed Party management skills. His best hope is to lose again, narrowly, and then spend the rest of his life like Benn, basking in the (undeserved) adoration of crowds at book and folk festivals.
Nick Tyrone:
I read the situation very similarly to you, though I wrote on your blog that I thought May’s popularity rested on a lack of action and that this was unsustainable.
Nonetheless, like you, I thought that if her (to me and you) self evident vacuity was to the liking of a large number, I could not see that many were likely to change their minds. The caveat here is that to some extent may has been humbled by the instability of FPTP, so we should not exaggerate the actual shift.
I feel very much the same about Brexit and the hordes for whom Brexit is a remote abstraction with little bearing on their everyday lives. The sort who queuing up at Dover would dismiss those that blame Brexit by blankly asking whether this would not have happened anyway. Put it down to a lack of empathy, but I find it hard to see what it would take for the shroud to drop.
A volte face may take place more precipitously than I can imagine.
Also we should not forget the alternatives to Theresa May – Andrea Leadsom? Michal Gove? There was a sense of relief when Theresa May – apparently the least worst option was elected. Along with the speach she made at the beginning when she sounded as though she had seen the counties discontent in the Brexit vote…
“We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. When we take the big calls, we’ll think not of the powerful, but you. When we pass new laws, we’ll listen not to the mighty but to you. When it comes to taxes, we’ll prioritise not the wealthy, but you. When it comes to opportunity, we won’t entrench the advantages of the fortunate few.”
Which of course all turned out to be hollow gibber jabber.