One of the things that makes me smile when I read political commentaries at present is whenever Brexit is framed as being “over with” sometime soon. This is one of the great myths of our current age. It is spread by those who think we can have a second referendum in the next couple of months, Remain wins and then everyone just forgets about Brexit completely; equally by those who think no deal Brexit means a couple of weeks of bumpiness and then we all forget about it and go on with our lives.
One of the reasons no deal Brexit would be a disaster for the Tories, even if somehow the initial impact of it wasn’t catastrophic, is that it would destroy them with both sides of their electorate. Remainers would never forgive them, while Leavers wouldn’t credit them for it but instead side with Farage who would go on and on about how no deal Brexit wasn’t done correctly, and if only he had been in charge, it would have been way better. Equally, those who are agnostic on the topic – an increasingly smaller number of voters – would see the Conservatives’ reputation for steady handling of the levers of powers annihilated.
Whether anyone likes it or not, Remain v Leave is set to be the political battle in British politics for many years to come. You may, like Mr Corbyn, wish it was austerity vs unicorn socialism, or you may wish it to be something other than Brexit and left-wing issues entirely, but we are where we are. The parties who understand this will be on the rise; the ones who do not, like Labour, are set to decline. Perhaps not in every constituency, but in enough so that it is the deciding factor in a general election.
What’s interesting about the current melting of the two parties’ electoral standing is that Labour’s decline in support was a lot more avoidable than the Conservatives’ issues. The Tories, as the government, had to find some way to enact it and agree Brexit and then see it through. True, if the party had found a way to unite behind May’s deal and get it through parliament, they wouldn’t be in the position they are in now. Yet they are there because of splits in the way Brexit will actually be delivered, not in the way Brexit could have ideally ben done. That was the remit of the the official opposition – who have blown in spectacular style.
After Peterborough, there is pressure on the Lib Dems to become a much more serious, big tent style party. Early signs on this front aren’t great. However, if the Tories and Labour don’t see how much politics has changed over the past months and get with it, they my not have to do anything but tread water to keep gaining support by default.
Interesting and I think correct perspective on Brexit dominating for years. However, I fundamentally disagree with your setup, namely the creation of an equivalence between an assumed but unevidenced Remain narrative, and a Leave narrative that is gleefully reinforced in every passing hard Brexit interview. Point me to the comment pieces or analyses where Remainers have argued that. Indeed, point me to the campaigning where Remainers argue that as a basis for a second referendum. Wanting another referendum to avoid the economic turmoil of Brexit, or to create a moment from which to move the debate on, is vastly different from Remainers glibly arguing Brexit – or rather, what Brexit represents – goes away with such a vote.
It is an argument rather in the style of John Harris who, in order to be intellectually balanced, finds a way to shift blame for narratives onto Remain, creating an equivalence between positions based on a rather patronising class analysis (my point being about false equivalences, not class analyses). The people most vociferously arguing that things will be fine are hard Brexiteers calling for no deal, who see an October exit as being the dawn of our glorious new and sovereign existence, liberated from the shackles of institutionalised international obligation. I don’t doubt there are Remainers who think that a second referendum is a cure all, but I don’t know any who see a second referendum as anything other than a way of addressing the current impasse. There is certainly no starry-eyed belief it will all be fine and much more a sense that it is better to tackle these divisions without the added economic and geo-political topspin of Brexit. It is certainly not a dominant Remain narrative. It is, though, a matter of curiosity to me why so many commentators claim it to be.
I take your point here, Ben. For the record, I consider the Leaver side of this whole argument to be much more in the clouds about “ending Brexit and getting on with life” than any Remainer one. I could have been clearer: there is a particular Labour type of Remainer that indulges heavily in this type of thinking. Call it the Keir Starmer position: we have a second referendum, we vote to Remain, everyone forgets all about Brexit and Labour can get back to talking about austerity, the NHS, etc. While it’s nowhere near as loopy as the no deal position, it’s still more than a little optimistic.
NIck –
“Whether anyone likes it or not, Remain v Leave is set to be the political battle in British politics for many years to come.”
I agree. But I don’t think the argument now is really about Remain v Leave either: that dichotomy is acting as a proxy for a whole host of economic, social, cultural and political issues, discontents, divisions and grievances, both real and imagined.
PS Something wrong with the text in your para. 2 line 3: “…while Leavers wouldn’t them for it but…”
This is undoubtedly the case. The positions are proxies for world views which probably best translate as open v closed as a recasting of the traditional left v right paradigm.
The generational divide makes the issue more piquant. Those left to pick up the pieces will have been overwhelmingly opposed to Brexit. The UK had enough economic challenges before Brexit, so unless there is a discovery of huge untapped oil reserves or similar, Brexit will always be there as a major contributory factor for the country’s woes.
The Mail, Express,Telegraph, Sun etc. will try to claim how much worse things would be had the UK remained in the EU, while the zealots will bemoan if only Brexit had been done properly until there is a Labour government to take the blame for everything and anything.
Nick Tyrone: What do you mean about the LIb Dems? I do not think you can expect them to have anything to do with Tories or Labour for years and years and years. If anything, the Greens have hardened against them; I expect Lib Dems to do what they can for the six independents, though I doubt any can survive a general election.