It was what she said very recently on her trip to Scotland to see Nicola that convinced me: Theresa intends to kick this into the long grass. I mean the 2020 long grass. That my previous assumption that she would just settle the whole matter via some sort of quick, Norway style EEA deal was looking less likely. This is because if she does any kind of deal at all, she’ll be screwed. So she’s looking for ways to draw the whole thing out as long as possible.
“I have already said that I won’t be triggering Article 50 until I think that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations – I think it is important that we establish that before we trigger Article 50.”
She must know there is no such thing as a “UK approach” to Brexit – Sturgeon has said that “Remain means Remain” for Scotland as far as she is concerned.
This set alongside the Johnson-Davis-Fox trio that is looking to negotiate this whole thing and some sort of possible plan starts to take shape. Davis has said some extremely embarrassing things about Brexit already (the “we’ll negotiate with separate EU countries” comment was particularly hide behind the sofa worthy), while Fox resembles the cockney character in “Killing Zoe” – his being excited beyond belief mindset appearing to be a precursor to being shot to pieces.
I wouldn’t blame May for this – Article 50 is arranged in such a way as to essentially amount to an economic suicide note for anyone who triggers it. If this is so, how does May intend to deal with fallout from the Eurosceptics both inside and outside her party? Perhaps this is how she is most like Dave: think of the fudge that works for the moment and worry about the future when it comes.
There is, of course, an alternative way to look at all this. Perhaps May is resigned to losing the Union but wants to appear like she really tried first. And that the Johnson-Davis-Fox thing is just a way of allowing the Brexit bunch to screw it all up royally so that she can ride in later with the grown ups and demonstrate that Brexit really does mean Brexit.
nigel hunter says
Like Corbyn she half heartedly campaigned for remain.Most Ministers seem to be Brexiters Is she a real outer or is she lining them up for a fall? The Jury is out.
Stephen Ralph says
This morning, Nicola Sturgeon appeared on the Andrew Marr programme and said that she could see Scotland possibly staying in the EU and in the UK.
When Theresa May said that she wanted a UK approach to the problem; I think I could understand what she was hinting at.
In the USA, each State has its own set of laws and regulations. Overarching these is the federal Government that supplies services such as defence and public health and benefits that the individual States cannot provide for themselves.
From time to time, here in the UK, people have briefly mentioned the idea of a federal United Kingdom where the new UK transforms into a federation of sovereign nations.
Each nation would have independence yet still be a part of a federation of nations called the United Kingdom.
The model would allow for a UK that provides things like defence, foreign affairs, welfare and select other services to every country within the federation.
Other than this, each country would govern themselves.
This model would then allow each country within the UK federation to stay in or leave the European Union.
So, everything would change and in a UK sense – nothing would change.
Wales and Scotland and indeed Northern Ireland would be self governing nations and so would England for that matter.
On another level there would still be a UK wide institution providing services to each nation that those nations agree need sharing.
I think that this is what Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon discussed last week.
Scotland would not need another independence referendum because this federal UK model would by definition give Scotland what the SNP wants. Scotland would be a sovereign country that would be entitled to stay in or rejoin the European Union.
At the same time, the UK would survive – not in the same structure as it is today or like the USA but as a group of sovereign nations that have two flags – their own national flags and the Union Jack that represents a new federation of nations.
Alex Marsh says
It may well be that the political strategy is to kick it into the long grass. But outside the bubble that is a terrible approach – the uncertainty generated by the possibility of Brexit is just drawn out ever longer. Investment is already drying up and being diverted elsewhere. That will surely continue as long as the risk of Brexit hangs over us. If in fact TM has no intention of leaving then it would be much better to say so sooner rather than later. That would minimise the economic damage. But it would take considerable political bravery. It is probably not a strategy that is seen as politically feasible.
Andrew Chadwick says
Isn’t a workable compromise to do outline negotiations before triggering article 50 and then put options, including Remain, to the assemblies, Scottish Parliament and necessarily to a General Election, when we know if the Scotland Union is really at stake, to see what the English think and is it different from UK..? Sturgeon’s original idea of needing majority in all four parts of the UK was a good one, and needing 40% of all voters to agree to a change of status I.e.. ‘Brexit, as with the first Scottish vote, would be even better.
I wonder if ultimately a second chamber representing regions and parts of the UK might drop out of this way of thinking. The irony is the literal view of sovereignty i.e. sharing a monarch is perhaps the least relevant here to our future. Except, that is, if a Sovereign were to decline to, or threaten not to, give Royal Assent to anything which risks UK splitup – more than the above arrangements. Now that would turn me away from being a Republican!
Nic Wells says
In my view TM has demonstrated a level of genius I don’t remember seeing in a PM for a long time. Basically if the Brexiteers screw up (as I think they will) she can say I put my ‘best men’ on the case, they tried and failed so Brexit is not doable. In the unlikely event they succeed she gets the glory too. Referring back to a previous comment she clearly cannot do the right thing and dump Brexit now, the Leavers in the electorate won’t stand for that .
M Gentles says
I think the idea that May isn’t serious about Brexit is very hard to sustain. She is committing a lot of resources to it, has staffed serious bloody minded Brexiteers into the relevant departments (with the exception of BoJo) and now she has turned down the EU co presidency to concentrate on Brexit. I think she is serious about trying to leave. However, it is correct to say that if it is a balls up she can turnaround and blame the Brexiteers for it, saying she gave them everything they wanted to make it happen.
Inwitujemy aż do wykorzystania z całokształtu 1 komfortowo wyprawionych apartamentów również pokoi, spośród których jederman został zorganizowany dodatkowo urządzony w innym stylu oraz kolorystyce. Świetne wnętrza, pierwszorzędnie