The political media like to converge on a consensus of events and to do so very quickly after something has taken place. Yesterday’s Boris Johnson rambling into a microphone for six minutes is no exception. What had been briefed heavily beforehand was that unless MPs give up on their quest to get legislation through the House stopping no deal from happening on October 31st, or unless that legislation fails to pass for whatever reason, Johnson will seek a general election to take place on October 14th. Every key journalist in the bubble was briefed the exact same message, so this was consciously put out for public consumption by Downing Street.
Then, Johnson came out of Number 10 and said, well, nothing at all. That he was going to fight to get Brexit done, come what may, blah, blah, blah. The one thing of substance he did mention was that he would never seek an extension from the EU. This implies a general election is coming – yet Johnson shied away from saying so, even though it was everywhere already because Downing Street had briefed the bloody date of this prospective election to the press. Did he get cold feet? I think he did.
Johnson is a brilliant orator, whatever you think of him in any other respect. He uses a lot of different techniques, akin to shots in a cricketing batsman’s arsenal, from the “I’m so confused all of a sudden, let’s move on” manoeuvre, to the “make a joke to change the subject” shtick. As a result, whenever Johnson speaks, political journalists make the automatic assumption that whatever he’s doing, even if it seems chaotic and off-piste, is a deliberate tactic. So, we get the press saying that Johnson was trying to make it seem like he was the one who didn’t want an election and he was being forced into it. Ah, brilliant Boris stuff again, they all say. Except, I don’t think so. What I saw last night was a very rattled Boris Johnson who is ever so slightly cacking it at present. And I don’t really blame him.
I think the fact that Stewart and Hammond are holding firm must be scary for him. The deselection threat was clearly meant to dispel the rebellion and it hasn’t worked. Trying to deselect someone like Hammond is tricky, not just politically, but practically as well. The Conservative party is much less centralised than is often assumed by casual observers of politics, and trying to get an MP deselected over the wishes of his association would require changing the way the party runs on a fundamental level. The blow back from that is hard to gauge, but could be monumentally damaging in the medium to long term for the Tories.
What I saw last night was a scared Boris Johnson, whatever the newspapers say. Again, I can hardly blame him. While he could still come out smelling of roses from all this, majority in hand, that is a very long way from certain. I recall another guy who went to Eton who rode his luck again and again to become prime minister. Everything always worked out for him in the end, just like it does for Boris.
His name is David Cameron.
Corbyn offers vote labour you get second referendum
That knocks out liberals
Farage will go hard on boris as another may eu collaborator
That splits leave vote
Labour form minority government with snp
Happy days
Nick
Candidates can’t use a party name and logo on the ballot paper unless they have been certified by the national agent. For most voters, that is all they look for. “Independent Conservative” or “Independent Labour” are not permitted names either.
I just rewatched the Boris statement. What really stood out was the chanting of demonstrators. Contrasted with and corroded his punchy delivery. Is anyone listening, was there anything to listen to?
“What really stood out was the chanting of demonstrators.”
Yes, indeed. Just the sort of thing that not only turns voters off, it frightens them too.
I suspect this is right; I have been pointing out at the weekend that people who are pushing the ‘Boris secretly wants to be defeated so he can have a general election line’ have not been listening. The best way to avoid no deal (we have been told) is to prepare for no deal; so if you’re preparing for an election, that’s because you think it’s the best way to avoid one.
Plan A was definitely ‘use the threat of an election to crush the rebellion’. It may still work; depends on how many Labour MPs in Leave seats fancy facing their electors a month after having gone on record voting to stop Brexit.
The general election was definitely plan B. And the thing about plan Bs is that sometimes you have to use them, even though (by definition) you’re rather not, and it means something went very very wrong with plan A.
But one of the big things that distinguishes this administration from the last one seems to be that they actually have a plan B that isn’t just ‘try plan A again again’.
M
I’d be rather surprised if the Government had spent August working on the assumption that it would win a procedural Commons vote on No-Deal (Plan A) in early September (or indeed early October). Therefore an autumn general election (Plan B) is, most likely, its real aim. The script for an election campaign writes itself – except that I expect Dom Cummings has done that already.
Depends on how many labour in leave seats vote with government
My guess 2
Result victory for rebel alliance comfortably
Bang on nicky boy
A Schop says 2 labour rebels
And 2 it is
My next prediction tories will be squeezed dry by brexit party
Allowing the red army into downing street with the rampaging Scots cleaning up Ruth’s backyard
Not a coalition for tory light liberals this time
Bang on nicky boy
A Schop says 2 labour rebels
And 2 it is
My next prediction tories will be squeezed dry by brexit party
Allowing the red army into downing street with the rampaging Scots cleaning up Ruth’s backyard
Not a coalition for tory light liberals this time