At the end of the summer, I reviewed whether or not Theresa May remaining as leader of the Conservative Party was the best thing for that particularly party. Now I feel the need to consider whether or not her continuing as prime minister is in the best interests of us all, paying particular attention to what is likely to follow her premiership, should it end within the next six months.
For starters, let us dispel the myths that May going would end Brexit, or that an election in the next year which resulted in Corbyn becoming prime minister would end Brexit either. If May stepped down now, it is very, very likely that whomever was her successor would carry on with Brexit and would ensure it went through by waiting for the next election post-March 2019, come what may. That seems so obvious to me it barely needed saying; yet many cling to a fantasy around the opposite idea. In fact, a true believer might even move into Number 10 of May departs soonish. Most Tory MPs seem to believe that Boris is dead in the water as far as leadership prospects are concerned, and that much of his support in the parliamentary party could shift to Rees-Mogg. Those of you hoping that May quitting will usher in a new dawn, consider that for a moment: it makes Jacob Rees-Mogg in Number 10 a very real possibility.
In the second scenario, an election in 2018 in which Labour either win or can form the next government, assuming that this kills Brexit is wrongheaded as well. It is more likely to happen, I’ll give you that, what with Corbyn having to appease his very Remainery PLP not to mention the fact that he would probably have to govern with the grace of the SNP. Yet bear in mind how important Brexit is to his ultimate project and I don’t think the idea that he will just let it die can be justified; particularly when you consider the very possible electoral damage that it would do to Labour in Leave voting areas of the country.
It is understandable that people across the political spectrum want May’s premiership to end as soon as possible; she’s really not very good at the job, quite evidently. Yet I wouldn’t lull yourself into a feeling that things will – indeed, somehow must – get better once she vacates Downing Street. It could get a whole lot worse.
it makes Jacob Rees-Mogg in Number 10 a very real possibility
Oh no, I don’t think so. You can’t be PM without having been either a cabinet minister, or Leader of the Opposition.
Gavin Williamson, on the other hand: is he the more voter-friendly version of Rees-Mogg?
Your commentary ignores that something has to be decided well before March 2019. Anything outside the Single Market and customs union is hopeless, but May is far too weak to be much different to back seat drivers such as Rees-Mogg. It is not even so clear she is that much different, for it has been May who above all has insisted on rejecting the Court of Justice of the EU. Astonishingly, It really is not clear that she distinguishes the Court of Justice from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
You end with “It could get a whole lot worse”, but the reality is that on May’s trajectory, it will get a whole lot worse.
You admit that stifling Brexit is more plausible with Corbyn, though you do not take into account the incompetence of Corbyn and his allies, not that they would be any more incompetent than May’s Brexiters, but faced with economic meltdown, UK industry that has been far, far too tolerant to the Tories, would be going ballistic. Brexit would have to be watered down to homeopathic levels and the UK would end up paying a bit more for a bit less.
Corbyn or his successor will not be passive about Brexit, given, but Corbyn or his successor – whoever that is – is far, far more likely to concede a referendum on the deal than any plausible Tory leader.
And it s not inconceivable (though an act of cosmic historical irony on a grand scale) that a Corbyn-Cable coalition could be shackled together, in which case it is reasonable to assume that a re-referendum would be a red line.
This is all unlikely, but it is all better than May. Even if it involves John McDonnel in nominal control of the economy.
I don’t think the comments above have fully taken on board that Brexit on 29 March 2019 at 11.00 pm is now automatic – with or without a deal. Unless something else happens.
One thing that could be counted on is the full fury of a nearly united Conservative party – along with their allies in the popular press – being unleashed against any pro-Remain referendum campaign backed by a leftist Corbynite Labour government. The opportunity would be too good to pass up. The politics of the matter would trump the economics.
Nick Tyrone:
Would you revise your judgement in the light of the letter that shows how Gove and Johnson are using may as a shield for their Brexit programme? The foolishly political amendment to mandate a hard Brexit on March 29 seems to be part of this. May is either a willing convert to or unable to control the cliff edge Brexit that the Tory party Brexit ideologues advocate. Worse, her continued presence provides someone behind whom the ideologues can hide behind.