One of the great political truisms of our age is that if Brexit were to not happen there would be “trouble”. I myself have engaged in this thinking, on this very website on occasion – it’s actually a hard assumption not to naturally fall into, if you’re in the Westminster bubble in any way, shape or form. Given where we are, it might be best to examine this conclusion in the cold light of day.
Iain Duncan-Smith said on ITV this weekend that:
“You think the country is divided right now, you wait until you try and hold that second referendum. There’s a very large chunk of people who will feel utterly betrayed and very angry, and I just caution you look across the Channel, we’re not that far away from that kind of process happening here.”
Basically, if Brexit doesn’t happen, we’ll get our own Gilet Jaunes running riot (literally) in central London. I could quote away from the number of Brexiteers who say something along similar lines, so let’s just move on. Anyone reading this has heard this idea espoused to them a million times from various sources.
One thing to watch for in politics that happens all the time is overcompensation. The 2017 general election is the easiest example to cite. Everyone was sure that the Tories were going to get a honking great majority and that Labour would be decimated. Then, Labour actually manage to gain seats. In response, pundits went into overcompensation mode and group think added greatly to this. Corbyn is prime minister in waiting and Labour are all but guaranteed to win the next election becomes the new truism. Except there are no facts to support this theory in any way whatsoever. Labour have consistently polled below the Tories in 2018 – hell, they have consistently polled below the Tories while the government has been in the midst of a profound crisis. Also, the Labour result in 2017 was, by any rational yardstick, still pretty horrible. In terms of seats, it was 2010 all over again. And there is nothing to suggest that any area which voted Tory last time would vote for Labour now. This isn’t to say that Labour cannot win the next general election – it is obvious that under certain circumstances they could indeed – it is just that it is in no way a certain, or even likely thing to have happen.
Now we move to Brexit and the supposed unrest that would occur should it not happen. Over the weekend, Tommy Robinson and UKIP organised a march through London to support the idea that Brexit needs to transpire. 3,000 people showed up, which given Robinson and UKIP’s collective social media outreach is fairly pathetic. There was a counter-protest march which attracted many more participants. Now, I want to be clear about this: just because only 3,000 people showed up for Robinson’s march, that does not mean you can come to the conclusion that no civil unrest would take place if Brexit were seen to be thwarted in some sense. However, it also anecdotally works strongly against the idea, which in the absence of real proof, is worth noting.
Here’s another thing to consider: what if Brexit does happen and it really is a total catastrophe? So, imagine Project Fear coming to life: diabetic children dying because their medicine can’t get through, supermarkets running out of food, water supplies getting cut off. Wouldn’t that trigger civil unrest? Again, I’m not saying any of that would happen in any Brexit scenario, I’m just saying……I’ll put this bluntly now. If you have a certain political position on the topic of Britain’s membership of the European Union, and you make a whole bunch of stuff up about what may or may not happen, can we at least just come clean about the fact that you’re making stuff up? And not even very plausible stuff, if we’re being straight here.
It seems to me that if Brexiteers want Brexit to happen, they should stop talking about Paris-style riots going down and start talking about why Brexit, in very specific terms, is such a great idea. They say Remainers failed in 2016 because they talked in nothing but threats. They should listen to their own advice.
Nick –
‘…if Brexit were to not happen there would be “trouble”.’ Maybe. Like you, I have my doubts. What I do think would be a clear possibility is that something quite insidious could transpire: public and political disengagement by even wider sections of our society and electorate than we are used to now, involving those who are often the most disadvantaged and least able to command national attention.
One effect of this would be to make our politics and our institutions, including the House of Commons, more unrepresentative, more out of touch and more exclusive of the views and concerns of the disengaged sections of our society and, thus, disproportionately skewed towards with the views and interests of the comfortable, well-off and well-connnected. Something like that has happened in the American political system. This would not be a healthy or welcome development here.
What I do think would be a clear possibility is that something quite insidious could transpire: public and political disengagement by even wider sections of our society and electorate than we are used to now, involving those who are often the most disadvantaged and least able to command national attention.
I agree, but you also have to remember that for a lot of Remainers this would be seen as a good thing. After all, what could be more helpful to the progressivist project than the total disengagement from democracy of those who voted to Leave, who also tend to be the most conservative sections of the electorate?
Indeed. But we now have plenty of examples to know where that elitist, we-know-best, tin-eared, Macronist, basket of deporables approach to politics leads. Let’s not go there.
Nick
As usual the Chingford skinhead is talking manure
The french only need to open a history book it’s called the french revolution
It’s in their dna
The British are apathetic
When serious rioting linked to gangs looting happened in 2011 the court system in this country went into overdrive up to 3 thousand were jailed in overnight sittings
Little Tommy robinson and his bnp edl ukip
Followers don’t make me laugh?
The damage was done when we voted to Leave in the first place, not just to the UK but all over the world. Brexit encouraged Trump, National Front in France, populism in Italy, the rise of the extreme right in Germany (frankly you would think they’d have learned by now). You may say I’m exagerrating but I’m saying these are cumulative and influencing one another, Brexit is merely the trigger for already simmering problems.
The genie is out of the bottle and the EU will soon feel the effects. Those groups in EU countries who want out will learn from whatever comes of Brexit, either remain or leave, 2 things; the tactics of the EU negotiators and based on the UK’s state how to pursue leaving, if the UK leaves well, copy. If the UK leaves badly or remains, do it differently.
The Leave vote has probably cost the UK Scotland but the rest will limp on regardless, we Brits are tenacious like that. I too don’t see much in the way of civil unrest, Brits are grumblers but adaptable. A bit of looting, get a free TV, have a cuppa tea and watch Strictly.
I voted remain in 2016 because I felt leave was regressive and would unleash forces beyond anyone’s control. Given another vote I’d want Remain and Reform on the ballot. Always look on the bright side of life *jolly whistling*
The EU is unreformable in any way that would suit the UK. After forty-odd years of membership, I would have thought was obvious.
The real crime is that the Brexiters are talking up threats of violence, Though I have seen Brexiters letting off steam on social media, most will engage in reasonable conversation if you treat them with respect, and deal with the issues they raise. Again the few of my friends who voted Leave are mild mannered ordinary people and very unlikely to be violent. If Tommy Robinson and his very well financed cronies want to let off steam, let them. They are a tiny minority, and don’t look very capable of assembling an army. We should not get excited about threats of any kind – that would only encourage those who wish to bully their way to Brexit.
The current uncertainty is working wonders for the Hedge fund owners who financed the Brexit campaign and who rake in cash when share prices fall. They are the people (together with their ERG cronies) that we should worry about, not the “violent masses” who they are exploiting,
You speak of Brexiteers like animals. You are the type that think the people cannot decide for themselves , I presume you live in a bubble you call the south. I’m not a violent person however a lot of people are. I dread to think what will happen if brexit is stopped , I would fear for the lives of some MPs , Bercow , Gina Miller to name a couple would have to go into hiding
I listen to folk on a daily basis. ‘Leave or Remain?’, I ask. In the shop. In the pub. Wherever. ‘Leave’ IS symptomatic of regressive attitudes that hate bureaucracy. ‘Remain’ is generally a younger attitude, more open to change. ‘Don’t care’ is just as prevalent. The situation is rife with paradoxes and egocentric posing. None of this will affect the outcomes for society in the coming decades. So, learn Mandarin and tighten your belt… unless you are a banker/programmer/politician! Or learn to converse with strangers and develop some empathy for the ‘other’. Prioritise listening over the self. Perhaps we will return to a sense pre-digital community? See what I mean with regard to paradoxes?
The trouble with the referendum was that it was based on a campaign and not just the facts. If Cameron had just given all the facts to the people for and against leaving he could have remained neutral and carried out the democratic wish of the people. Because it was run as a campaign like an election campaign the minority don’t accept the democratic vote. If the remain group had won would they be expecting the leavers to be behaving in the way that they the remain group are behaving and trying everything possible to prevent the democratic process and the majority peoples wish. How can Vince Cable be an MP when an MPs responsibility is to see through the wishes of the people. How can anyone vote for the Lib Dems as any vote for them would be undemocratic as Mr Cable openly states he would stop Brexit. That is totally undemocratic. Those wanting a reasonable exit agreement with Europe must understand that the only way we will get a reasonable deal is if Europe see that we are prepared to leave without a deal and they don’t receive the £39bn. Can’t people see that Europe desperately needs the needs the UK as they need our funding and trade. We are Germany’s fifth biggest car market. What would happen if we bought Japanese cars instead of German cars? The EU have us exactly where they want us at the moment and the only way we can resolve this is how we have in the past which is to stand alone and steadfast and we will get through this with a reasonable deal, not what the Europeans have offered so far. I am sure there are actually very few people who want to leave Europe without a deal but we must ensure the deal we leave with is as much on our terms as on Europe’s and not all one sided on Europe’s side.