The big news this week: Jeremy Corbyn is ready to do a deal with Theresa May. Well, sort of – one of the red lines in his proposal is that we join a customs union but still have a say on trade deals, which is not something that May is going to get the EU to concede. So, in the end, it’s yet another gambit. But a weird one, when you stop and think about it.
It’s no longer clear what Corbyn is trying to achieve with his Brexit stance. While I never bought into the whole “He’s playing a blinder” routine, I have to admit that for a long time he seemed to at least be keeping a lot of his options open than I would have thought possible. Now, he seems so obviously to be playing games – and appears to be playing games on Brexit in the eyes of the general public who are not Westminster nerds, which is really bad for him. I don’t see how any scenario that could unfold on Brexit would benefit Corbyn, given how he has positioned himself to date.
If he colludes with May in any way shape or form, he will lose a whole chunk of his support. Not just those young Remainery types, but a whole bunch of Labour leavers as well. He will then have joint responsibility for the deal failing when it does so in the eyes of most of the nation. If there’s no deal, he will get far less blame than the Tories will, but he’ll still get a lot. I don’t see how Labour doesn’t massively split in the case of no deal anyhow.
If there’s another referendum – well, I’ve been through why that’s bad for Corbyn. Genuinely, I cannot foresee a way through for him given where he’s managed to position himself. He’s totally snookered whatever he does.
I think in a couple of years time, the idea that some people thought Corbyn was odds on to be the next prime minister laughably quaint. I’m starting to think the way he’ll go is vote for May’s deal in an amended form of some kind. Good luck to him if he does.
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My new book on life in the era of “fake news” and what that all means when things don’t go to plan (*cough* Brexit *cough*) is out today on paperback:
Nick –
“I’m starting to think the way he’ll go is vote for May’s deal in an amended form of some kind.”
I thought that had been obvious to everyone for some months. He doesn’t need to vote for it himself, of course. He just needs to send the right signals to enough Labour MPs to do the necessaries: either to vote for it or abstain in the crucial divisions.
Some bad news for Labour in Lambeth (Thornbury ward) down 18.2% with lib Dems up 23.1% and Bradford (Bolton & Undercliff ward) down 10.6% with Lib Dems up 9% and losing the ward to the Lib Dems. It looks like Corbyn’s fence-sitting is finally getting through to Labour supporters.