One of the more interesting moments already in the nascent race to see who becomes the next leader of the opposition was when Jess Phillips appeared to suggest that Labour could campaign to rejoin the EU, if the conditions were right – and then, a few days later, appeared to retract this possibility. What the Labour Party collectively hopes is that Brexit, now that it is definitely going ahead, will cease to be an issue for them. I think they are fooling themselves. Furthermore, they have painted themselves into a corner with Brexit that I can’t see a way out of.
If the Labour Party embraces Brexit fully, as some of the Corbyn gang are pushing for, this comes with all sorts of problems. It would make it difficult for Labour to criticise the government whenever something goes wrong in the negotiations, or indeed, the post-negotiation period. They can try and pull the “Brexit would have been way better under our watch” line, but that wasn’t believable during the election campaign, or come to think of it, at any point since the 2016 EU referendum. They also have “Remainers revenge” to consider. A huge majority of Labour members want to remain in the EU and without Corbyn the saviour in charge any longer (and the inevitable disappointment any successor is bound to bring to this cohort) I could see a lot of them going Green or even Lib Dem if Labour embraces full-on Brexity-ness. If the Tories are going to hold onto a huge majority anyway, why not?
Yet becoming the rejoin party would be riddled with problems as well. Labour would be painted as both undemocratic and living in the past, fighting old battles. It would give them way more leeway to criticise the government’s handling of our post-Brexit future – but at the cost of very possibly further alienating a huge group of voters they need to win back to stand any chance at all of winning either of the next two general elections. The chances of Labour sinking further into a bubble would increase.
Finally, being neutral on the topic isn’t going to work either. They may hope, like the prime minister does ironically enough, that Brexit disappears from the public view at the end of this month. While possible, I think it’s unlikely. The negotiations will be front page news and when we really leave at the end of 2020 – assuming we do and the there isn’t some fudge found to keep the transition going under a different name – that will be news as well. Labour’s fence-sitting on Brexit is one of the main reasons everyone can agree on as to why Labour did so badly in December. Carrying on with the same strategy looks like madness.
It is possible that everything falls right for Labour on Brexit and they somehow accidentally get it right. But if that happens, it will be accidental and entirely down to luck.
I do not think any party will be out and out for rejoin, not because of some nonsensical claim that it is undemocratic to engage in opposition, but simply because despite encouraging words from across the channel it is not in the power of the UK to decide for herself. There will have to be a lot of preparatory bridge building. What is more immediately feasible for opposition parties is to advocate maximum access to the Single Market with minimum bureaucratic red tape for exporters and importers.
The biggest impediments are McCluskey, the funding he controls and other of Corbyn’s clique with hands on key posts in the Labour Party.
What remains to be seen is the fallout from Brexit. Johnson is behaving as though the UK economy will be unaffected or that agreement on advantageous trade deals will be easy. It is hard to foresee precisely what and when, but in economics once a snowball starts rolling outcomes become exaggerated. Businesses closing down with rising unemployment would create a self exacerbating loop. Blithely ignoring the dangers looks a highly risky strategy. Perhaps waiting for the Conservatives to become unpopular is what has to happen now. In 1992, Labour had a leader who looked every inch a future PM. Keir Starmer might start to fit into that role, but Labour may end up with a leader struggles to project a vote-winning identity.
Brexit goes tits up and we go into economic decline then let’s see how the blue wall reacts when it gets a kicking
If brexit leads to economic nirvana then the tories will be in power for 20 years
I know which one I would bet on