I am very much looking forward to voting in the European elections, more so than any other election I can remember. I suppose this is because this set of elections was snatched away from me as a result of the 2016 referendum, and now I get to have them back. When it became clear they were going to take place, I felt cautiously optimistic about how Remainer parties would do. A lot of that has deflated since because of the way the parties involved are going about things.
Change UK and the Lib Dems really need a pact for these elections. The broad outlines suggest themselves already: Change UK could do well in London as a pro-Remain party with no baggage (the Lib Dems do particularly horribly in London), while the Lib Dems are obviously better placed to run in the West Country, where they have history and a base. I don’t know, this doesn’t seem that difficult to me.
Without this pact, I worry about how well either party ends up doing. It looks from here like Labour will get the most votes, followed by the Brexit Party, followed by who the hell knows. The Tories will do poorly, but will make the excuse that they didn’t want them to happen and didn’t put any effort into the campaign. It can then be sold as a victory for Brexit, even though most Labour voters will be Remainers.
I don’t know, perhaps I’m being too bleak here. Maybe the six million signatures on the Revoke petition means there really are the numbers Remain parties need to get seats, even in spite of working against one another. But I fear a golden opportunity might be about to be squandered. Again, Remainers will be where they have been since June 2016: mostly counting on the Leavers to make unforced error after unforced error, which they have been gracious in delivering.
Actually the Lib Dems do quite well in London – it is obviously home to currently their strongest area in England in SW London. The most recent Opinium poll (which tends to give the Lib Dems lower ratings than other pollsters as a rule) gave the Lib Dems 11% in London to Change UK’s 4%. There have also been signs of weakness for Labour in the capital as the recent by-election in Lambeth shows and it will be tough too for the Tories with many staying at home as well as switching to UKIP/Brexit.
The Lib Dems may APPEAR to do less well because large swathes are dominated by Labour which has obviously been difficult in recent years following the coalition and in any area under First Past the Post where you are getting above 40% one party can dominate in actually getting people elected as the SNP show in Scotland – so councillors have been difficult to get in recent years. Obviously the Euros are by PR.
The overwhelming media narrative will be to add up the percentages got for UKIP, Brexit and the Tories on the Leave side and Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and (most likely) Labour on the other. On these grounds it is better the Remain parties fight as separate parties as frankly they are each likely to attract voters that won’t vote for the others.
On the number of MEPs elected it is a little difficult to say. Obviously this is a PR system so MEPs should be proportional. But you need to get 10% to GUARANTEE at least one MEP elected in a 10 MEP region and 20% in 5 MEP region etc. – and may be in practice less than that as some votes get wasted. And it is NOT a preferential system so people can’t say where their vote should go if it doesn’t help elect someone. So it is possible that Change UK and the Lib Dems combined would get an MEP elected when they don’t individually.
In practice with a joint list or especially with one party standing down for another in different regions it looks as if very few if any EXTRA MEPs would be elected – especially as it looks likely that the Lib Dems will clear the threshold to get at least one MEP elected in most regions and it is likely that combined joint candidate list or pact could well attract fewer votes and mean a lower percentage for Remain parties. And there would be very tricky negotiations as to how to order the lists or who should stand down where.
And Change UK looks very determined to fight the elections on their own which is understandable.
For clarity the opinion poll figures quoted in London are for voting intention in the European Parliament Elections.
Absolutely agree with your call for Remain parties to work together. Joint slates, perhaps?
I understand that the deadline for registering joint list options passed a couple of weeks ago. Not sure if this is correct, but nevertheless it seems clear that the Chukists see the LibDems as part of the ‘old politics’ problem and not part of any solution. They may have a more sober view of things after 23 May.
By the way, joint lists are not unknown in some European countries, eg in France, the centre-right parties have often put up joint lists at European elections. But then party labels and loyalties are more fluid in France.