The right-wing newspapers still crow about how brilliantly Boris Johnson is doing; yes, it may look to the casual observer as if he’s lost every vote since becoming PM and seems to be visibly disintegrating in the chamber, but no. It’s all part of an ingenious plan to crush the saboteurs.
Back in reality, I am struggling to see how Johnson hasn’t put himself in check. I really don’t see a move that he can make that gets the prime minister out of the hole he’s willingly jumped into. He can only be saved by a major error from Labour – which, to be fair, isn’t out of the question – but he has no manoeuvres left. His fate lies in the hands of his enemies.
Johnson has at his disposal 300 MPs: the 289 Tory MPs who take the whip, the DUP MPs and Kate Hoey. That’s it. If the opposition stay even relatively united, he’s stuffed. Here’s how it is almost certain to go from here: the Benn bill will pass the House of Lords tomorrow and then get Royal Assent, becoming law. Labour will not give him a general election this side of the prorogation period. This means that Johnson is going to be forced to ask for the extension in mid-October, or be given it from the EU anyhow given that it is British law, taking us past the hard October 31st deadline he made for himself. Johnson at this point either has to resign in protest or try and push ahead, despite October 31st coming and going with the UK still in the EU.
Then, the opposition will call no confidence in the government and there will an election during the extension period, one in which the Brexit Party have been gifted Johnson’s broken promise. Unless Labour screws this up, this is how it will play out. Johnson has no means of stopping this from unfolding as I’ve just described himself. The only thing truly in his power to do is resign if he wishes.
Yes, say his supporters, but then we’ll have an election and Johnson will crush all. Well, I can’t rule it out, obviously, but there are a lot of flaws in that thinking. Johnson playing the victim isn’t as strong a gambit as many assume. With the moderates being very publicly marched out of the party and the Brexit Party handed a huge boost in the October 31st deadline elapsing, Johnson suddenly looks like he may well get trapped in a pincer movement. They hope to trade heavily on Corbyn having avoided an election, but I doubt this will have any traction because one, Johnson himself said publicly he didn’t want an election and two, as Johnson himself pointed out, most people don’t want an election anyhow.
I don’t think Number 10 expected quite so many Tory MPs to rebel. if it hadn’t been so many — if it had been only 10-15 — then there would be enough to pass a bill temporarily suspending the Fixed Term Parliaments Act by simple majority, given that the SNP will abstain (at least) because they don’t care who is in power in Westminster and they probably fancy their chances in an election against Boris.
This is (part of) the constitutional vandalism of the FTPA: it has introduced US-style government shutdowns into our system which was supposed to be so constructed as to ensure that the executive and the legislature could never be at odds (because if they were then there would swiftly be an election and a new Parliament). It really needs replaced ASAP.
One thing the FTPA is silent on is what happens if Boris resigns as Prime Minister, but not as leader of the Conservative party. Normally as soon as a PM resigns the Queen sends for someone else to form a government, but in this case, there is no such possible person who can command the confidence of the commons. So would we be left without a government until 2022? By the letter of the law, it seems the answer is yes. Strange times indeed.
Perhaps the SNP will come to the rescue by voting with the Conservatives for a ‘notwithstanding the FTPA’ election motion. They, as well as the Conservatives, have the most to gain from an election now. It would be a devil’s bargain, but Boris is between that and the deep blue sea.
The SNP come to the rescue of the Tories??!! Do you really think that is at all likely?
When Johnson went to Edinburgh to see Nicola Sturgeon, one could almost feel her flesh creeping.
The SNP come to the rescue of the Tories??!! Do you really think that is at all likely?
There have been stranger alliances of convenience. The SNP have a lot to gain from an election, especially one where they can pitch it as them vs Boris (Corbyn and McDonnell having sealed the final nail in Scottish Labour’s coffin).
M
I think I am right in saying that there was a prime ministerial hiatus over the weekend following the Carlton Club meeting on Thursday 19 October 1922 which rejected the continuation of the Liberal-Conservative Coalition arrangement and led to the resignation of both the Liberal prime minister, Lloyd George, and his deputy, Austen Chamberlain, who was the sitting Conservative party leader.
The former Conservative leader Bonar Law was drafted in formally as party leader and then prime minister only on the following Monday. A swift, but somewhat politically confused general election followed on 15 November giving the Conservative party a clear majority.
We are in that sort of territory now,
M
You got egg all over your face
Wipe it off man
Oh sorry you cant
An article 50 extension is a maximum, not a minimum, right? It just means ‘if you can’t agree a deal by the end of the extension you leave with no deal’, not ‘you must stay to the end of the extension’. you can always leave before the end of the extension, either with or without a deal.
Certainly I remember it being said when the first (or maybe second) extension was granted that May’s plan was to bring back her deal, pass it, and then we’d leave with the deal before the end of the extension.
So, what stops Johnson from refusing to go to the EU asking for an extension, at which point Parliament will presumably invite the EU to offer one and pass a bill to accept it themselves (and, possibly, saying that if there’s no deal at the end of the extension then article 50 is revoked — I doubt they have the balls to do that, given they never have before, but maybe).
Then when the general election happens, even if it’s after October, Boris can fight it on the basis that as soon as he is elected with a majority his government will leave the EU instantly, without a deal, repealling whatever legislation he has to in order to get that done?
If he did that, it spikes the Brexit Party’s guns, to the extent that they probably wouldn’t even stand or would only stand in selected seats against high-profile Remainer Labour / Lib Dem incumbents (they’ve already made overtures in that direction, saying they will stand against Boris ‘unless he is clearly committed to leaving without a deal’ which, well, he would be).
It’s hard to see Boris not winning a majority in that scenario. Yes, he’d have failed in his pledge to leave by the end of October, but his hands would be clean whereas every Remainer in Parliament would have been forced to dip theirs in the blood.
M
Well, quite. The is a great deal of difference between Mrs May changing her tune and asking for an EU membership extension voluntarily and Boris Johnson being forced into asking for one by Parliament. The public can spot the difference. And then of, course, there is the little matter of Parliament preventing the electorate from having its say on the issue in a public vote – sorry, I mean a general election.
Boris can fight a general election on the promise of hard Brexit – but would he win outright? I think he can win an election on the promise of Brexit with a deal – even if he doesn’t believe he can get a deal. Can he win promising a hard Brexit? It would certainly focus opposition.
I think he can win an election on the promise of Brexit with a deal – even if he doesn’t believe he can get a deal. Can he win promising a hard Brexit? It would certainly focus opposition.
Opposite surely: offering to leave with a deal, after the dealine has passed, splits the Leave vote between Brexit Party and Conservatives. He’s lose for sure.
Offering to leave immediately with no deal consplidates the whole Leave vote behind him. He wins.
Boris would have clean hands
Yeah as clean as catweazle
What are these leavers smoking
Election after october 31 boris is dead in a ditch murdered by farage
Election after october 31 boris is dead in a ditch murdered by farage
Not if he commits to leaving without a deal immediately. The Brexit Party has been preparing the ground for not standing if he makes that a firm commitment.
If he does that corbyn becomes pm with snp support promising them an indy vote
If he does that corbyn becomes pm with snp support
No, on current polling Conservatives + Brexit Party vote is easily enough for a majority. Any wet Conservatives put off by the idea of no deal have already gone to the LDs, so the remaining vote is solid.
what will Brexit win ? Thurrock, Hartlepool, Great Yarmouth, Boston and possibly Castle Point. Hardly a majority.
what will Brexit win ? Thurrock, Hartlepool, Great Yarmouth, Boston and possibly Castle Point. Hardly a majority
I mean that if the Brexit party don’t stand candidates in most seats but encourage those who would have voted for them to vote for the conservative candidate instead (after having extracted a pledge from said candidate to vote for leaving the EU without a deal) then, while obviously not the whole vote will transfer over, I think enough will that a lot of those seats will be won by the Conservatives.
Especially when you take into account that the Remain vote in a lot of those seats will be split between Labour and the Lib Dems.
I don’t think there will be many actual Brexit Party MPs (possibly none) but I think that their vote, if used as described, will, when added to the Conservative vote, and taking into account the split Remain vote, be enough to secure a majority.
The labour snp liberals green plaid will unite to stop a hard brexit as they do now in event of boris farage coalition they will not have the numbers to legislate in the event of a tory win
They can’t stop it if the Conservatives (+ Brexit Party possibly) have a majority of MPs, which they will.
Hmmm… Brexit Party would have to improve radically on UKIP’s ability to win actual seats in a GE. And Boris would have to hold on to all of the seats Cameron and May won with less insane manifestos. Possible, but hardly a dead cert.
Well, he’ll have a better manifesto than May’s, but that’s mainly because a worse one can scarcely be imagined. And I doubt the Brexit party will win more than one or two seats and that only if they put up a candidate against a high-profile Remain incumbent in a strongly Leave seat.
But, the Remain vote will be split so I would expect a lot of seats where the Conservative sneaks through the middle of Lib Dem and Labour, and I think that‘s where the majority will come from.
This is the second civil war but the weapon is parliament and numbers
Until the election we have a corbyn government and it will be the same after election
The tories are as toxic as farage boris has out extremed constitutionally labour
The idea that all leavers want or will vote for a hard brexit is simplistic – as is the notion that they would all vote conservative. Either way it should be tested in a referendum rather than a GE.
Either way it should be tested in a referendum
What would be the question, though?