One thing Jo Swinson got very right when she became leader of the Liberal Democrats was saying that, while she was more than willing to work with pro-Remain Labour MPs, she would not prop up a Jeremy Corbyn premiership. This is a key message for several reasons, not least of which is that taking Labour on is vital to securing electoral success for the Lib Dems.
Many Lib Dem activists feel instinctively more comfortable attacking the Tories than going after Labour. In some ways this is understandable. Yet the next general election, and that could be mere weeks away, will be largely about showing Tory voters than a vote for the Lib Dems is not a vote for a Corbyn government, while simultaneously showing Labour Remain voters that a vote for the Lib Dems will not result in a Conservative landslide. The Lib Dem attack on the Tories is straightforward to some degree: it’s about Brexit, in an election that will be all about Brexit, with the Tory and Lib Dem positions easy to understand. How to attack Labour is trickier – but the broad outlines are obvious if you think about it.
A Labour government would lead to Brexit as much as a Conservative government would. That should be the core Lib Dem message on Labour. Corbyn has said again and again that he would look to negotiate a new Brexit deal if he came to power. Surely he wouldn’t be pledging to do so if he didn’t believe such a deal was possible? And if he thinks it is possible and desirable, why wouldn’t Labour back their own deal in a referendum? A further thought: a Labour government could lead to a no deal Brexit. How? What if Labour doesn’t get a new deal, something which is highly probable? Do they put no deal against Remain in a referendum? What if no deal wins? Would they enact a no deal Brexit? They would clearly have to.
All of this does messaging, done well, would mean that Labour need to try and explain their Brexit policy more and more. And since it is badly cobbled together smoke and mirrors, it could make the whole Labour general election campaign unravel. So much of how the Lib Dems do in a 2019/2020 general election comes down to how they take on Labour. Otherwise, it could be the Liberal Democrats who end up getting squeezed.
The Lib Dems have the Social Liberal Forum and Liberal Reform. SLF can make the case that the Lib Dems are more attractive than current Labour for Social Democrats. LR is more comfortable with overt attacks on socialist or left-authoritarian policies as well as naturally reaching out to liberals (and one nation Conservatives) from other parties.
Will they be smart enough? Attacking Labour should be a higher priority than internal differences.
Although very, very broadly you are sort of right, there is a lot you have wrong.
Liberal Democrats have to win over Conservatives who find Johnson and his ilk appalling. This means Lib Dems do have to attack this ruling group of the Conservative Party. When there is so much to criticise, there is no point in making stuff up. True, a Corbyn government would likely be useless, but it would not stumble into an accidental no deal Brexit, though it could stumble into a benign Brexit. Corbyn can be criticised for being ineffectual and relaxed in the face of a very harmful Brexit. Just as Liberal Democrat criticism needs to be careful not to tar all Conservatives with the Johnson, Raab, Mogg, Williamson, Patel brush, they cannot afford to paint all of Labour as Corbynistas.
Of the (80 or so?) seats that are seen as even remotely possible wins for Lib Dems, less than a handful are Labour. Liberal Democrats can only win almost any of these seats by drawing voters from both sides. Strongly challenging the lies, deceit and recklessness of Johnson and co, who are already trying to bribe and woo electors, while manipulating the media, will be an imperative.
Nick –
The effectiveness of Lib Dem attacks on the Labour party all depends on whether the next polling day is staged before or after Brexit day. Before Brexit day and the Lib Dems will be able to attack Labour’s nebulous stance on Brexit. After Brexit day, not so much – except to share round the recrimination for Brexit taking place.
If there really is a ‘no deal’ exit then there will be recriminations aplenty, including recriminations within the Labour Party, and the UK will be ultra desperate for all sorts of deals.
But the problem, electorally speaking, is that those recriminations will be fought among a small niche of the voters — the die-hard ‘we should never have left’-ers — while the vast majority of the electorate will simply have moved on and be looking for who is best placed to govern a newly-independent Britain.
LibDems should learn from their own history. Labour is in a similar position to the old Liberal party in 1923 – on its last legs. Voters see it as divided and its leader as not likely to be able to lead an effective government. Corbyn is seen as error prone just as Lloyd George was then seen in backing the defeated Greeks against the Turks (and risking British lives in the process).
So in 2019-20 those who were previously Labour will back individual Labour MPs they regard as well above average and be tempted to have a punt on the LibDems or the Brexit party (according to their feelings about Brexit) in the constituencies of the other 80%. My view is that for the LibDems to do well they should get close to the Greens, Plaid and Change.uk and bury the hatchet for now with the SNP. Also work with Labour in Parliament. But in the country, Labour should be ignored because they are their own worst enemy and no-one can damage them better than their own leadership. Attack Johnson full time for being the unholy fool he is and a lackey of Trump. A powerful dose of Scottish scorn is what is needed. Adam Smith is just about still on the £20 note as it shrivels into small change.
The problem for the Liberals in 1923 was that the leader – Asquith – was obviously past it, but still hanging on. While the alternative – Lloyd George – was still tainted by the recent coalition with the Conservatives and had an air of, well, dodginess about him.
Ah 1922
The good old days for the liberal tory coalition
Yep little mistake backing the greek landing in turkey
Mr ataturk
So lloyd george falls
1922 committee gets its tory name
Liberal conservative coalition has deep roots
Liberals always tack to the right
But swinson already forgot serving under cameron
Not forgetting that great Liberal churchill