I am very much looking forward to voting in the European elections, more so than any other election I can remember. I suppose this is because this set of elections was snatched away from me as a result of the 2016 referendum, and now I get to have them back. When it became clear they […]
If you were going to bet on a political long shot happening, this is where I would put my money
I will begin this article with a disclaimer: I am not making a solid prediction here, nor am I telling you how you should bet your own money. What I am doing rather is making a point about the unpredictability of British politics at present and how if you were a betting person, you could […]
My take on David Lammy’s “not strong enough” comments, for what it’s worth
I have been on holiday over the last week and intermittently catching up with British politics because, well, even on holiday I can’t quite let it go. This weekend, I happened upon the David Lammy story in which he compared the ERG to the Nazis. When confronted by Marr on his programme, Lammy decided to […]
What the Newport West by-election result tells us about the state of Labour, the Tories, Lib Dem and UKIP
Political types tend to read way too much into by-election results. My all time favourite was a Labour pundit saying in the aftermath of the 2013 Eastleigh by-election that Labour were definitely going to win the 2015 general election because their 0.2% increase in vote share (to 9.8%) compared to 2010 demonstrated the unstoppable momentum […]
May “reaches out” to Corybyn: what that means for Brexit and the possibility of a People’s Vote
May gave what for her was a reasonably substantial speech yesterday, meaning it wasn’t just “red, white and blue Brexit” said in a slightly different way 43 times but rather something that at least had the trappings of substance. She is going to have talks with Jeremy Corbyn to try and see what Labour can […]
After last night’s votes come up empty, the following scenarios are no longer science fiction
David Davis, speaking on the Today programme this morning, said this: “I would make one warning to the cabinet this morning. Don’t be sure every Conservative MP would vote for you if it was made a confidence vote. One or two have said already, I think there are probably twenty who would say [Brexit] is […]
Here’s the problem with the softer Brexit argument
This evening, MPs will vote on the second round of indicative votes. The essence is to find some alternative to the Brexit plan as put to the House by Theresa May and rejected by the Commons 2.5 times. The first round of indicative votes came up blank for a very simple reason – the real […]
After every indicative vote fails, this is where I think we are now with Brexit
Last night in the House, something novel took place. MPs were given ballot papers containing eight motions. They were to vote Aye or Nay to each of them; they could vote for or against as many as they wished. The results were then read out in the normal way. None of the motions managed a […]
Here’s how what seems to be the ultimate plan of the ERG could go foul
This evening, the House of Commons will vote on 16 different paths either to or out of Brexit (and which one falls into which category very much depends on your definition of what qualifies as Brexit or not). Rumours swirl that May’s deal will be brought back to the House tomorrow, as well as another, […]
It’s getting hard to see how we leave the EU from where we are now
In the summer of 2016, if you’d asked me how likely was the chance that in the end we wouldn’t leave the EU, I would have said very, very, very low. Like, asteroid hitting the Earth and wiping out all life in Earth in the next week level of statistically unlikely. The Leavers had won […]