One of the big questions ahead of next May’s general election is this: just how well are UKIP going to do in the end? Will they achieve anywhere near the fourteen percent nationwide that they got in this week’s ICM poll? Or will their vote collapse, mostly heading back to the Tories? Actually, as interesting as these questions are, they aren’t the real ones we should be asking. What we should be asking is: how many seats will UKIP end up with? After all, under First Past the Post, you’re much better off getting 1% of the vote nationally but ending up with two seats, than get 10% and ending up with none.
So I’ve looked at the “super-12” UKIP targets, as revealed by Sky this summer, and taking on board the two they already have, I will now predict how these fourteen seats will turn out. I could try and do all of UKIP’s core thirty target seats, but really I don’t have that kind of free time on my hands and besides, these core fourteen should tell us a lot about how UKIP are going to do overall anyway.
THE CURRENT UKIP SEATS:
CLACTON
Current MP: Douglas Carswell, UKIP
Majority: 12,404
Carswell is incredibly well-liked locally and the by-election wasn’t just Tory voters sticking two fingers up, thinking it was a freebie with the intention of going back to the Tories in May. These folks are sticking with Dougie.
Prediction: UKIP BY A LANDSLIDE
ROCHESTER & STROOD
Current MP: Mark Reckless, UKIP
Majority: 2,920
Think of this as the anti-Clacton, if you will. This really WAS Tory voters sticking two fingers up at the Tories as a freebie, with the intention of returning to the fold in May. Polling on the day of the by-election had Reckless winning by between twelve and fifteen points; in the end, he won by seven. And the polls even on the higher margin of victory still foretold of the Tories getting the seat back at the general election. Reckless is toast.
Prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN
SUPER-12 UKIP TARGET SEATS:
NORTH THANET
Current MP: Roger Gale, Conservative
Majority: 13,508
Two of the twelve core target UKIP seats are North Thanet and South Thanet. We are constantly told that this is prime UKIP territory. And yet the council has 56 members of which, only two are UKIP. Weirdly, it’s Labour controlled, only just, but the two Westminster seats are very safe Tory seats. Note the Rt Hon Gale’s majority. Unless the sitting MP defects, this seat is going nowhere.
Prediction: COMFORTABLE TORY HOLD
SOUTH THANET
Current MP: Laura Sandys, Conservative (standing down – Craig Mackinlay standing for Tories in May)
Majority: 7,617
Another safe Tory seat in Kent that UKIP think they can swipe. Part of Farage’s decision to stand here was down to Laura Sandys and her pro-European viewpoint. But she’s stepping down, and the Tories are not dicking around at all with her replacement: Craig Mackinley used to be in UKIP. In fact, he used to be the Deputy Leader of UKIP. He’s staunchly anti-EU, as you would imagine, and as an ex-Kipper will be able to speak with authority about what a shambles they are. Farage has chosen very badly here – he’s going down in flames. The Tories might even be able to increase their majority. Current Ashcroft polling has the Tories ahead of Farage by five. Expect that gap to widen as May 2015 approaches.
Prediction: HARD FOUGHT BUT IN THE END SIZABLE TORY HOLD
SITTINGBOURNE AND SHEPPEY
Current MP: Gordon Henderson, Conservative
Majority: 12,383
Another Tory seat in Kent, with a sitting Tory MP who is vocally anti-EU and has a whopping great majority. I suppose in UKIP’s defence, this was very recently a Labour seat (it was in fact, a 2010 gain). But that was during the New Labour era, with a very popular ex-rugby player in Derek Wyatt as the MP, and is almost certainly going to be Tory for the foreseeable future. Labour are wise to this; this constituency does not feature at all in their top 125 target seats. If only UKIP had been so wise.
Prediction: COMFORTABLE TORY HOLD
AYLESBURY
Current MP: David Lidington
Majority: 12,618
Finally, some method to the UKIP madness. David Lidington, who has been Minister for Europe this entire parliament, is a Euro-realist who nonetheless sounds like a raving pro-European to the UKIP squad. But then let’s look at the facts on the ground: Aylesbury council has 59 councillors. Guess how many are UKIP. One. Tories? They have 36. Didn’t UKIP pick up a bunch of local seats around the country last time out? Why not target those seats, the ones where they have some infrastructure to go with? The UKIP candidate, Chris Adams, is local (he’s the one councillor I mentioned earlier) and seems okay, by UKIP standards anyway. But, seriously, no chance. UKIP think the fact that they did very well here in the Euro elections means something. It really doesn’t.
Prediction: TORY HOLD, WITH A REDUCED BUT STILL SIZABLE MAJORITY
EAST WORTHING AND SHOREHAM
Current MP: Tim Loughton, Conservative
Majority: 11,105
UKIP target another very safe Tory seat (even in 1997, they won by 10 points), with a socially conservative, anti-EU Conservative incumbent sitting on a massive majority. Next.
Prediction: VERY COMFORTABLE TORY HOLD
GREAT YARMOUTH
Current MP: Brandon Lewis, Conservative
Majority: 4,276
This is a bit more like it: a genuine Lab-Con marginal, this one is going to be a hard fought, three-way race. UKIP genuinely have a chance here, and in Alan Grey they have an ultra-local candidate. This one is very tough to call.
Prediction: CURRENT POLLING SUGGESTS LABOUR GAIN, WHICH I’M GOING WITH. BUT COULD GO UKIP OR TORY
THURROCK
Current MP: Jackie Doyle-Price, Conservative
Majority: 92 (that’s not a typo by the way – it really is a wee ninety-two)
Like Great Yarmouth, reasonably well chosen by UKIP. In Tim Aker, a decent candidate as well. But they still aren’t going to do it. Labour are really going for this one, and in Polly Billington they have a great PPC going for them.
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
FOREST OF DEAN
Current MP: Mark Harper, Conservative
Majority: 11,064
Former Minister of Immigration Mark Harper is one of the future stars of the Conservative Party. Steve Stanbury is an ex-Tory mid-ranks Reckless type. No chance on Earth.
Prediction: COMFORTABLE TORY HOLD
EASTLEIGH
Current MP: Mike Thornton, Liberal Democrats
Majority: 1,772
This seat is UKIP in a nutshell. They run Diane James, easily one of the most presentable, credible candidates ever to stand with a purple rosette on in the February 2013 by-election. They come within five points of winning the seat, getting a massive 27% of the vote (from 3.6% at the 2010 general election). In the next by-election, UKIP run….Roger Helmer. Okay, I guess they were saving James for Eastleigh, for 2015. Nope, she’s not running here again. And so, UKIP’s ray of possible light is snuffed out yet again.
Prediction: LIB DEM HOLD, WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASED MAJORITY FROM THE BY-ELECTION
PORTSMOUTH SOUTH
Current MP: Mike Hancock, Independent (ran as Lib Dem in 2010, had the whip withdrawn for disciplinary reasons. Gerald Vernon-Jackson is standing for the Lib Dems in 2015)
Majority: 5,200
It’s a funny seat this one: a Tory very safe constituency forever, it went SDP in a 1984 by-election, went back to the Tories in the 1987 general election, and then Hancock got it for the Lib Dems in 1997 and has kept it since. He’s stepping down after a scandal and everyone assumes the Lib Dems will lose this one now. I wouldn’t underestimate the campaigning skills of Jackson-Vernon or the fact that a UKIP insurgency here just might split the vote enough for the Lib Dems to keep it. But I don’t think so, much as I’d like to think so. I think the Tories will take this one back. Either way, UKIP have no real chance here.
Prediction: TORY GAIN
BOSTON AND SKEGNESS
Current MP: Mark Simmonds, Conservative
Majority: 12,426
We’re told constantly that this is basically THE UKIP seat of all of the possible ones. Rumour had it that Farage seriously thought of standing here before deciding on South Thanet. Too bad for UKIP – I think Farage just might have pipped this one. Without him, they’ll squeeze Simmonds’ majority, but the Tories will keep the seat.
Prediction: NARROW TORY HOLD
GREAT GRIMSBY
Current MP: Austin Mitchell, Labour
Majority: 714
We are told all of the time about what a threat to Labour UKIP poses. And yet, this is the one Labour held, northern town on their whole core list. That’s silly on their part; they would have been so much better off aiming at a few more Heywood and Middleton type seats. I could have seen them fluking a few of those. All those Kent, Tory safe seats they just have no chance in, at least in 2015. So could they pull it off in Great Grimsby? It is prime UKIP territory in many ways. But Labour know that and have sent in Melanie Onn, a very promising candidate who is no carpetbagger, having grown up in Grimsby. I think she’ll be able to hold it – just.
Prediction: NARROW LABOUR HOLD AGAINST UKIP
So, as you can see, I don’t think UKIP are going to do all that well, if how I think they’re going to do in their main target seats is anything to go by. I do want to say here and now that they will have a massive affect on the general election, probably ultimately costing the Tories a majority. But they won’t reap the rewards themselves, in my opinion. And had they chosen their main target seats better, at least they could be looking to build on something for 2020. As it is, I think they’ve wasted a golden opportunity.
“Had they chosen their main target seats better…”
Which 12 seats would be better than these 12?
Put all the seats in a hat and pick 12 out What UKIP chose was 12 seats their MEPs and suchlike wanted not what was winnable in reality they will never have this chance again after the next election their hopes will be popped and a UKIP vote will be a wasted vote!!
Wasted? You sound it!
This is a fascinating article. I hope your predictions will come through. I take it that, when you wrote that UKIP will deprive Tories of a majority, they (Tories) will still be in pole position for the most seats in a hung parliament. Personally I would prefer a continuation of the coalition arrangement with the LibDems until 2020. Despite the personal hostilities between members of both parties, they worked well together on a clearly defined mission.
I am, however, concerned about the continued leadership of Cameron. He is past his sell-by date. He resurrected the Tories after the disasters of the Blair years but he is on the verge of becoming a liability for the party. (I would not post this on Twitter). I believe a change of leader is required but do not think it will happen before election.
The party needs to move away from the Old Etonian block which is why I am not sure about Boris although he is an enigmatic figure. There is no Thatcher in the offing but I like Esther Macveigh (spelling?). She will appeal to a wider proportion of the average voters countrywide. David Davies might be a good short-term (5 years) bet. But the rest of the Front Bench is singularly uninspiring. But the party must move away from the “posh boy” image of the current leadership.
You say Hancock is standing down but he may still stand as an independent in Portsmouth South given the financial rewards on offer to a defeated (as opposed to retiring) MP
The electorate are really angry.
They see MP’s who have never done a proper job, file bogus expenses claims, lie as soon as they open their mouths, put the party before the country/constituents, are an apple short of an orchard, avoid answering questions and turn up ill-prepared for the job they are supposed to do.
They intend to do whatever they can to change things for the better.
I pray that UKIP win more than 10 seats and find some of the pro-Tory views above typical of the reason why UKIP have grown in support. All too often we hear about there being little difference in policy between the 3 main parties – all trying to win the centre ground of the electorate – yet when a party like UKIP comes along with starkly different views that resonate with a lot of people they are vilified despite tackling head on the electorates entrenched concerns. I would be very interested to know which Tory mandarins are manipulating the broadcast media to produce disparaging documentaries either of the UKIP party or its followers such as ‘Meet the UKIPpers’ I saw a few nights ago trying to give people the impression that they are all weirdo’s. I doubt whether Reckless and Carswell could be classed as weirdo’s having resigned their Tory whip to join UKIP. Let’s have some balance and have one 6 weeks from now focused on the Tory Eton Rifles, their privileged backgrounds, shameful expenses behavior, drinking ‘pints’ in the Carlton Club hidden from public view and then ask yourselves why you are not giving them a proper election kick in the pants by voting for a party they are clearly becoming frightened to death of. Even Cameron won’t stand for debate – god knows how he would lead us should we have to go to war in defence of the realm.
I have absolutely no idea why you have underestimated UKIP so much. You are absolutely wrong about many of your prediction, especially Thurrock. I live in Thurrock and everyone I know is voting UKIP. There are posters and leaflets all over promoting UKIP. Everyone here is up for UKIP, you really have got your info wrong!
I hope that you are right!
Curious thing about Farage’s choice of Thanet South is that the existing MP, Laura Sandys, is probably the post pro Europe MP in Parliament! Currently Chair of the European Movement no less ! She had a comfortable majority in 2010 with nearly 50% of the vote. She has never made a secret of her views. If Euroscepticism was a hot button for the good burghers of Thanet She would surely not have been so successful.
As someone who is strongly pro-Europe, I hope you’re right and that UKIP fail to win any more seats. My experience, however, of talking to a lot of ordinary working and non working people, is that UKIP is the party that best represents them. Most of this is on the back of UKIPs strong anti-immigration stance and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up doing surprisingly well in both Labour and Tory constituencies. The major parties have belittled UKIP time and time again and I think this is going to cost them dear…
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